Bitcoin Price Analysis — Bullish momentum at last

The technical setups posted below use simple trend detection, support and resistance, channels, pattern and candle analysis. We aim for high-probability trade setups on BTCUSD, and use very few indicators. All charts use BNC’s Bitcoin Liquid Index for maximum accuracy.

The timeframe for trades is 1 to 7 days, so we’ll use 4h candlesticks. Bitcoin is best traded as a purely speculative commodity on 4h+ timeframes.

Market Sentiment

This section is based on internal (anonymized) Whaleclub trading data and is published exclusively on BNC.

Current Active Long vs Short Volume Ratio: 0.82:1

Average Active Long vs Short Volume Ratio: 1.9:1

We have a 20% excess in active short volume relative to the average. The average weighted short entry price is $417.7, which is much lower than the current market price – this means that on average, active shorts are very much underwater. This is a significant revelation: these underwater shorts can help fuel a strong short squeeze and propel price upwards.

Sentiment is bullish like last week – but the underlying data has evolved. Large amounts of longs have closed as they banked on Sunday’s $10 price pump. If price breaks up above the key $435 trendline, which has held strong, and bears keep expecting a price dump and opening short positions, then we may see a broader short squeeze.

Macro Key Points

This section is an overview of news headlines or events that may affect BTCUSD.

Most of the press in the cryptocurrencies world this week focused on the blockchain and Ethereum rather than on bitcoin itself.