Bitcoin Price Analysis: Week of July 17

Market Thoughts

The economics in Greece have been on the edge of disaster for quite some time and most of the world saw it coming. This includes the residents of Greece who leading up to the banking shutdown had withdrawn unprecedented amount of physical Euro’s out of the system. Many in the Bitcoin space used this opportunity to promote the benefits of Bitcoin during a crisis of this magnitude using Cyprus as a real life example that occurred about 2 years ago. This includes myself as I have been talking about the Greek crisis setting off a trend change around June or July in live presentation at Anarchapulco in February, Texas Bitcoin Conference in March, Inside Bitcoin NYC in April and Inside Bitcoin Hong Kong in May.

Most traders are well aware of current events and will always try to gain an edge. Those prepared will pre-emptively enter the market and most likely started buying bitcoins early, anticipating the additional demand coming from Southern Europe. This created a positive cycle where the rise in price drew positive attention and with the help of the mainstream media picking up the “Bitcoin could be the savior of Greece”, created more trader buying and additional positive news. This cycle eventually came to a sudden end the day Greece threw in the towel and signed on the dotted line to go into further debt and create a similar but more severe crisis later this year.

Of course there is no denying the fact that some Bitcoin buying did come from Greece and the surrounding regions, but more positive came out of this development then direct buying. For starters there are now more ATM’s in Greece with CoinOutlet adding one a few days ago. Without a doubt even more are on the way and not just Greece, all of Southern Europe. This is great for future Bitcoin adoption as absolutely nothing has been solved and the debt crisis in that region is only going to get worse.

Additionally, this 40% increase in price over the last 5 weeks has done more than put bitcoin on people’s radar. It has completely changed the technical picture, with the most noticeable element being the Daily Moving Average Cross. The picture looks like a major trend change is in the works, and now most technical traders are going to be recommending upward targets for bitcoin. Anything can change quickly. especially with recent technological issues and debates in the ecosystem, but for the moment things are looking pretty rosy even with the current fall in the price over the last few days.

Market Outlook

The technical picture continues to look pretty good.

The current up swing had finally come to a stop around the $315 mark, which happens to match the high for the year occurring late January. This has a allowed us to place an additional horizontal resistance line, which when broken to the upside should set off a really nice upswing. Currently we are on track for a standard pullback, which has many resistance points along the way, but the more critical one is around $250.  The RSI has been in overbought territory for some time so it is good to see it fall back down to a reasonable level.

The more detailed Daily Chart is now reserved for subscribers to BraveNewCoin Traders Report, which outlines short-term, intermediate-term and long-term viewpoints. It also breaks down all the relevant weekly news, their relevance to Bitcoin’s price and general standing within the financial ecosystem.

Final Thoughts

I would like to thank everyone that came out to the Inside Bitcoin Chicago event. There were many great speakers and many in the audience were there from the first presentation to the last. Special thanks goes out to Adam Meister who put together a short recap video mentioning my contributions to the event in great detail. Following the conference I was on the Freedom’s Phoenix Radio show via Skype video for a recap of that same event, talking about Bitcoin’s recent volatility and discussing global economics, politics, privacy and the outlook for the future.

This article was completed on Thursday July 16 4:00 pm ET, when BraveNewCoins Index showed Bitcoin price at $279 USD.

Tone Vays will be a speaker at the upcoming Inside Bitcoins San Diego Conference Dec 11-14.

Disclaimer: The price projections above are just the opinions of one trader. It is meant as a guide, or fresh look, to supplement the reader’s personal views on bitcoin. Trading in general (but especially Bitcoin) is incredibly risky and should only be done with capital one can afford to lose. The Author is a trader and does take on small position in the manner suggested in the article.