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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Week of May 19

The price of bitcoins has been incredibly stable over the past 2 weeks. This period of stability is nudging the average time before a significant move takes place. As usual, one of the reasons why there has not been much movement is the lack of any significant news.

Market Thoughts

The price of bitcoins has been incredibly stable over the past 2 weeks. This period of stability is nudging the average time before a significant move takes place. As usual, one of the reasons why there has not been much movement is the lack of any significant news. Wall Street is getting more involved, with announcements coming from the likes of; Nasdaq, looking to implement their superior technology; NYSE, putting together an index – even if it is an index of 1 exchange, as strange as that sounds; and BONY Mellon, expressing additional interest.

These are all great signs for the future as we might actually get people involved that understand security, market need, and responsibility. There is always this love hate relationship with Wall Street, and Bankers in general, so perhaps not all will see this move in the best possible light. Bankers have done many things over the last decade to draw disdain from the masses, but much of could be considered unfair. Banking is a profession, and in a free market they would be held accountable with their jobs and freedom. In today’s market however, the ever growing Government has removed many elements of this free market. The idea of Too Big To Fail, is just one element that indicates something is wrong with the system.

Wall Street has a lot of smart people and let’s hope that if they intend on getting involved in Bitcoin, the blockchain will be their restraint and hold them accountable for any wrong doing. Only when the Government can’t bail you out will we be on a path to better world.

Market Outlook

When there is not much fundamental at play, we focus more on the technical picture.

We have been slowly moving up from the lows of $215 in April. There was nothing special about the interim price range, and technically we should have fallen lower. My guess is that most traders are not ready to throw in the towel just yet. Stability is good, but in order for Bitcoin to have another speculative bubble it is likely that a big chunk of people need to lose all hope, and price would take that one last dive to scare off the weak hands.

The more detailed picture is clearly displaying the strength of the 50 day SMA. The first sign of the reversal of this downward trend would be a strong close above this resistance barrier. We have not had one of those days since 26 Feb. A move like that cannot be assumed, so for the time being it’s best to just go with the trend – and the trend says lower. How far lower is still to be determined, for now let’s keep an eye on that $200 round number.

Final Thoughts

The Hong Kong conference went extremely well. The attendance was noticeably down from a year ago, which is understandable as the price has been on a 16 month down trend. One interesting development was a panel I was on, along with the founder of LeoCoin. Not having any facts behind me, and only learning about LeoCoin while on stage, I ended up apologizing for calling it as a scam. But I will take the opportunity now to take back the apology. I can always be proven wrong so anyone with interest in LeoCoin please look it up and make your own educated conclusion.

While on the subject of new Altcoins that paint a picture of Bitcoin being silly, and needing replacement, there are two that seem to be everywhere – NuCoin and NEM. While a much more in depth economic analysis is coming, initial reactions are that these projects are completely ridiculous. If only all the analytical brainpower that went into the NEM white paper, and all the advertising costs to push NuCoin, were used to further spread adoption of Bitcoin – then we might actually get somewhere. This is all of course an opinion, I do not consider either project a scam and know people involved in both, I personally don’t agree with what they are doing.

This article was completed on Tuesday May 19 at 11:45 pm ET, when BraveNewCoins Index showed Bitcoin price at $234 USD.

Tone Vays will be a speaker at the upcoming Inside Bitcoins Chicago Conference July 10-11.

Disclaimer: The price projections above are just the opinions of one trader. It is meant as a guide, or fresh look, to supplement the reader’s personal views on bitcoin. Trading in general (but especially Bitcoin) is incredibly risky and should only be done with capital one can afford to lose. The Author is a trader and does take on small position in the manner suggested in the article.


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