ADVERTISEMENT
Advertise with BNC

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Week of May 26

We have seen two big headlines rock the crypto-world this week, yet the price hardly budged. This can most likely be seen as positive, but let’s briefly explore these events.

Market Thoughts

We have seen two big headlines rock the crypto-world this week, yet the price hardly budged. This can most likely be seen as positive, but let’s briefly explore these events.

On May 22 it was announced that one of the most popular exchanges, Bitfinex, had its hot wallet hacked. This is of course is an unfortunate situation, and it clearly show that security in the crypto-world still has miles to go. If, as they claim, only 0.5% of the bitcoins were taken it is not big financial hit, but it is still a confidence hit. In the long run this may prove to be a positive as we need to weed out the week elements of the ecosystem, and replace them with stronger more competent alternatives, which the free market is pretty good at when given the chance. As is usually the advice provided by this analyst, you should only let third parties hold bitcoins you are willing to lose, or have confiscated by Governments. So anyone who is holding more than say 10% of their bitcoins at any exchange, including Bitfinex, only have themselves to blame if things end badly.

Another piece of news that seems to be dominating the headlines and chat groups is the dispute between one of China’s biggest exchanges OKCoin and Roger Ver, over the website Bitcoin.com. Without going into the details, it seems like OKCoin is doing everything it can to get out of a contract, which is unfortunate and is not reflecting kindly on the organization. As an analyst who is friends with Roger Ver and several former employees of OKCoin, my personal opinion as a trader is to not have any bitcoins at risk at OKCoin. Everyone is free to do as they like, but in this world of self regulation all you have to go on is confidence and character.

Morgan Christendom

As Martin Armstrong constantly points out, markets are as much about confidence and character as they are about financial health. The relevant quote is above, but the entire testimony can be found here.

Market Outlook

The technical picture hardly budged on this news, and this stable price might be good for commerce. For traders it is holding in energy, waiting for a big move.

The Symmetric Triangle that has just been added is not perfect, but it is something a trader must consider. While it is true that this type of pattern tends to have a 50/50 chance of breaking out or break down, in this case we would be slightly leaning for a break down. The reason for this is that it is forming at the end of a very long down trend, and the previous big move was also to the downside. Other than technicals, the general sentiment around Bitcoin is a little week as my recent travels around Asia have shown. Bitcoin does have a bright future, but at the moment the likelihood of one more down move is very high. The bullish side of the move will only be considered upon new highs over $250.

As for the zoomed in picture, it is really a thing of beauty. Very rarely do you take a snapshot at absolute neutrality. Both the RSI and MACD are dead center, at 50 and 0 respectively, and the price is sitting just $2 above the 50-Day Simple Moving Average, which is on the verge of flattening out. The last time a similar snapshot could have been taken was around Dec. 3, 2014. The movement prior to that was completely different, and the 6 week period that followed was a $200 drop in price from $365 to $165. This type of move is of course not expected right now, but if entertained on a percentage basis, it would put us around $100.

Final Thoughts

Spending some time with the Bitcoin communities in Thailand and Malaysia, it is even more clear to me that the next rise in price will be lead by developed regions like Europe and the West. It is really hard to see a sub-sector like remittance being the driver. Keep an eye on the Greece default as the bills are due on June 6, and perhaps it will lead to some capital flight via bitcoin, out of that economically dead region caused by insane policies.

This article was completed on Tuesday May 26 3:00 am ET, when BraveNewCoins Index showed Bitcoin price at $238 USD.

Tone Vays will be a speaker at the upcoming Inside Bitcoins Chicago Conference July 10-11.

Disclaimer: The price projections above are just the opinions of one trader. It is meant as a guide, or fresh look, to supplement the reader’s personal views on bitcoin. Trading in general (but especially Bitcoin) is incredibly risky and should only be done with capital one can afford to lose. The Author is a trader and does take on small position in the manner suggested in the article.


ADVERTISE WITH BRAVE NEW COIN

BNC AdvertisingPlanning your 2024 crypto-media spend? Brave New Coin’s combined website, podcast, newsletters and YouTube channel deliver over 500,000 brand impressions a month to engaged crypto fans worldwide.
Don’t miss out – Find out more today


ADVERTISEMENT
Advertise with BNC
ADVERTISEMENT
Advertise with BNC
BNC Newsletters: A weekly digest of the most important news and analysis.
ADVERTISEMENT
Advertise with BNC
Submit an event on bravenewcoin.com
Latest Insights More
ADVERTISEMENT
Advertise with BNC