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Bitcoin Price Analysis – Antbleed rocks community

Bitcoin has been trading between ~$1190-1330 this week, according to the BLX, on steady bullish volume. Total Network Hashrate continues to make all-time highs, despite the ongoing block size and scaling debates. Network Hashrate is currently unchanged from last week, having increased 51.58% year to date.

Bitcoin has been trading between ~$1190-1330 this week, according to the BLX, on steady bullish volume. Total Network Hashrate continues to make all-time highs, despite the ongoing block size and scaling debates. Network Hashrate is currently unchanged from last week, having increased 51.58% year to date.

News broke today of a backdoor built into bitcoin mining hardware produced by Bitmain. The firmware backdoor allows Bitmain to cross check against customer sales and delivery records. However, the hardware manufacturer can also remotely shutdown the mining equipment. Some estimates state that 70% of current bitcoin mining equipment securing the network is built by the company. More info here.

Using the backdoor just before or just after a difficulty adjustment would have the most damaging effect. If activated just before, the hash rate would drop significantly, thus dropping difficulty briefly. Difficulty would then adjust to the new lower hash rate. If the miners were brought back online before the next difficulty adjustment, blocks would be mined rapidly and hasten the pace to the next difficulty adjustment, which would then correct and normalize. The worst case scenario would be to deactivate a large number of miners just after a difficulty adjustment. Hash rate would be low, and difficulty high. This would slow the network significantly, increase block time, and increase the time to the next difficulty adjustment significantly, especially if the miners remained off for an extended period of time.

Block support for SegWit and Bitcoin Unlimited, as well as Node support for each proposal, was largely unchanged on the news.

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Japanese Yen (JPY) trading volume continues to dominate the global market, far and above any other trading pair, with more reported trading volume occurring on bitFlyer than all US Dollar (USD) exchanges combined.

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Global Markets

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Japanese Yen Treading Exchanges

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US Dollar Trading Exchanges

Converted from JPY to USD, the price on bitFlyer is $1297.34, which is more in line with most of the USD exchanges, excluding Bitfinex which continues to run a greater than $100 premium. Of bitFlyer’s four exchanges, two have trading fees. Zaif, an exchange reporting more volume than Bitfinex, also has zero trading fees. Coincheck has zero trading fees, as does Quoine. BtcBox has a 0.2% trading fee and significantly less volume than the other JPY exchanges.

As seen in the past, with OkCoin and other domestic Chinese Yuan (CNY) exchanges, low to zero fees can result in wash trading, which is not true trading. CNY volume remains a shadow of it’s former self, with many chinese exchanges under fiat withdrawal halt.

Technical Analysis

The leading USD exchange, Bitfinex, currently holds a large premium over the other USD exchanges due to an inability to withdraw USD on that exchange. Most users must therefore first buy a cryptocurrency in order to exit the exchange. Because of this, there is a non-normal supply/demand pressure on this exchange. Normally, arbitrage would smooth over the premium and correct any abnormal supply/demand pressure. When arbitrage is unable to correct this, there is an indications of a bottleneck on the exchange side. For that reason, technical analysis feels less valuable than in normalized conditions. Logic for entries, exits, and stops remain the same, but should be used with extreme caution.

When price is about to break all-time highs, the first indicator a trader may look to is the longstanding Pitchfork, specifically on Bitstamp with log scale.

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This setup has consistently been able to project both support and resistance of the entire trend over the past two years. The median line (red) gives the expected mean of the trend. Price will continually attempt to return to this diagonal. Each diagonal of the Pitchfork can be thought of as a potential reversal zone or support/resistance line. The upper blue diagonal zone being ‘most overbought,’ or the top bounds of the trend, and lower blue diagonal zone being ‘most oversold,’ or the bottom bounds of the trend.

Price is approaching the ‘overbought’ quartile but has plenty of room for continued bullish momentum. When price exceeds the upper limit of the Pitchfork, as it did in November 2015 and June 2016, expect a bearish reversal. Until then, targets between $1400-$1700 are viable.

Bollinger Bands, a measure of volatility, on the daily and four hour time frame continue to show bullish momentum, with the daily showing BBand expansion and the four hour walking up the bands.

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Moreover, the four hour is showing very little BBand expansion (BBW) compared to previous large moves, this more than anything, suggests a much larger upward thrust is coming. However, many of the previous BBand expansions on this time frame have been due to large bearish movements.

The Daily Ichimoku Cloud is currently showing a growing TK disequilibrium or ‘C-Clamp’ suggesting sideways with a pullback to the Kijun at $1107 is more likely than continuation. As stated above, the basis for this rise has been slightly suspect and therefore may be difficult to gauge the accuracy of signals such as this.

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The Ichimoku Cloud is a constant, auto-drawn indicator which quickly offers an immense amount of valuable information on any time frame. The Cloud is best used at higher time frames as more data generally provides more accurate signals and less false positives.

The indicator uses moving averages and dynamic support and resistance to make projections of key zones, as well as capturing 80% of any given trend. As long as the price remains above the Cloud, sentiment remains bullish. Price in the Cloud indicates a neutral trend, and below the Cloud indicates a bearish trend.

When the Tenkan (T) is over the Kijun (K) sentiment is bullish. K over T would indicate bearish sentiment. When the Lagging Span (LS) is above the Cloud and above the price sentiment is bullish, below the Cloud and price would indicate bearish sentiment. The best entry signals for the Cloud occur when the trend is obvious, but 1 or 2 of the signals have yet to become confluent with a higher time frame trend.

Overall, the bullish TK cross on April 16th has proven to be an excellent indicator of a long entry signal. This was the last signal to flip bullish at the time. As the price was already above Cloud, Cloud was bullish. Lagging span was above Cloud and price the next day.

There is also potential for a bearish divergence with a higher high in price and lower high on a momentum oscillator such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This again suggests waning bullish momentum. A divergence can be easily canceled as soon as the previous RSI level is broken. A bearish divergence can be identified with confidence once price fails to reach higher on the RSI and an interim top has formed.

The four hour Cloud has also provided excellent long entry signals with a bearish TK cross above the Cloud followed by a bullish TK cross above the Cloud on April 18th. There are no current long entry signals on this time frame but bids on Kijun with stops at Cloud are viable.

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There is also a small, but confirmed, bearish divergence on this time frame as well with a small TK disequilibrium or ‘C-Clamp.’

The one hour cloud also provided excellent long entry signals with a bearish TK cross above the Cloud followed by a bullish TK cross on April 23rd. There are no current long entry signals on this time frame but bids on Kijun with stops at Cloud are viable.

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Conclusion

A threat to 70% of the miners in the Bitcoin network is certainly pause for concern. Whether or not Bitmain or another nefarious actor would be able to activate the backdoor with success for an extended period of time is another question. Bitfinex holds a large premium over the other USD exchanges with no end in sight so long as USD withdrawals remain halted. Indicators are showing a ceiling of $1400-$1700 with continued suggestion of waning bullish momentum, despite the continued rise in price over the past week. A true test of the trend will occur when USD withdrawals are normalized on Bitfinex and the premium can be removed through arbitrage. The current rise being due to organic growth and/or normal supply/demand pressures from the Bitcoin block halving seem unconvincing.


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