Chart of the Day – Is It Time to Buy Bitcoin?

Veteran technical analyst Dave the Wave posted a Bitcoin chart to X with a characteristically restrained caption: “Yeah baby…”

Yeah baby… pic.twitter.com/cBWpPu5mPN

— dave the wave🌊🌓 (@davthewave) August 19, 2026

The chart shows Bitcoin surging into a descending resistance line that has capped the market since its October 2025 peak near $126,000. At the time Dave captured the image, BTC was trading around $68,216 after an intraday high near $69,739. It subsequently approached $70,000, with Bitcoin changing hands around $69,600 at the time of writing.

The move has reignited a question that has barely seemed worth asking for months: Has Bitcoin finally reached the point where a dead market becomes a dangerous one for the bears?

Dave the Wave’s Bitcoin Chart Shows a Major Trendline Test

The most important feature of Dave’s chart is the dotted diagonal resistance line running down from Bitcoin’s October high through successive lower peaks. For nearly a year, that line has defined the broader correction. Each recovery eventually ran into sellers, reinforcing the assumption that rallies were temporary and lower prices remained inevitable. Wednesday’s move challenged that pattern directly.

The daily candle opened around $64,706, reached almost $69,739 and was trading at approximately $68,216 when the chart was captured. That pushed Bitcoin into the descending trendline and briefly above it, placing the market at its most consequential technical decision point in months.

A separate rising green support line beneath the market points to a broader recovery structure, while the upper boundary of the chart suggests potential resistance around $80,000 to $83,000, rising toward the high-$80,000s over time.

The chart does not guarantee those levels will be reached. It shows that Bitcoin is attempting to escape a compression zone that has defined much of its recent bear market.

Brave New Coin previously identified the $66,400 area as the upper boundary of Bitcoin’s months-long trading range. That level has now been cleared intraday, shifting the discussion from whether a breakout might happen to whether the market can hold it.

That distinction matters. A decisive daily close above the descending trendline, followed by continued strength, would provide a stronger signal than a brief move through resistance that quickly reverses.

Why Bitcoin’s Breakout Feels Like April 2019

The historical comparison drawing attention is April 2019. By that point, Bitcoin had endured a brutal post-2017 bear market. Prices had collapsed from nearly $20,000 to the low-$3,000s, volatility had faded, trading activity had dried up and much of the market had settled into the assumption that nothing interesting was coming anytime soon.

Then, on April 2, everything changed.

Bitcoin surged as much as 20% and broke above $5,000 for the first time in months. Reuters reported that the move was likely triggered by an order worth approximately $100 million spread across Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp.

Oliver von Landsberg-Sadie, then chief executive of cryptocurrency firm BCB Group, said the buying appeared to involve a coordinated order of approximately 20,000 BTC.

“There has been a single order that has been algorithmically-managed across these three venues,” he told Reuters.

The purchase hit a market that had become thin, complacent and heavily conditioned to expect more weakness. Once resistance broke, short covering and forced liquidations helped turn an initial buying impulse into a much larger rally.

The most significant development was not the size of the first green candle. It was the abrupt change in market psychology.

For months, traders had treated every bounce as another opportunity to sell. Suddenly, the risk ran in the opposite direction. Investors who had dismissed Bitcoin as dormant found themselves scrambling to reassess.

By June 2019, Bitcoin had climbed above $13,000, reaching approximately $13,666 on Bitstamp. That does not mean August 2026 will repeat the same trajectory. The April 2019 move was larger in percentage terms, and today’s market has a vastly different institutional and macroeconomic structure.

But the emotional setup is strikingly familiar: months of boredom, fading participation, low expectations and a sudden breakout that forces everyone to reconsider whether the bear-market narrative still fits.

Low Volatility Set the Trap for Bitcoin Bears

The recent market backdrop helps explain why Wednesday’s move was so violent.

Earlier this month, Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility fell to approximately 36%, a historically important floor that reflected expectations for relatively muted price movements.

Bitcoin had spent weeks rotating between approximately $62,000 and $66,000. Every attempted recovery stalled. Trading conditions looked tired, liquidity was subdued and conviction had largely evaporated.

That kind of environment can create a false sense of safety.

When traders assume volatility will remain low, they often become more comfortable holding leveraged positions against the prevailing range. In this case, bearish positioning accumulated while Bitcoin struggled beneath resistance.

Then the market moved.

The Treasury Department announced that it would increase long-dated bond buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, helping push Treasury yields lower and improving appetite for risk assets.

Bitcoin broke through its established range, and the derivatives market did the rest.

Approximately $1.4 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated within four hours, creating a cascade of forced buying that accelerated the move toward $70,000.

Unlike April 2019, there is no evidence that one mystery buyer was responsible for Wednesday’s breakout. The catalyst appears to have been a combination of Treasury-market intervention, improving regulatory sentiment and aggressive short covering.

The market mechanics, however, are familiar: compressed volatility, crowded positioning and a sudden move through resistance that leaves bearish traders with no choice but to buy.

The Levels That Matter From Here

The first question is whether Bitcoin can hold the breakout zone around $66,400 to $66,600. A sustained move above that area would suggest that former resistance is becoming support. If Bitcoin slips back below it, Wednesday’s rally risks being remembered as a short squeeze rather than the beginning of a durable reversal.

Dave the Wave’s chart presents a wider structural picture. If Bitcoin can establish itself above the descending trendline, the upper region of the rising channel points toward approximately $80,000 to $83,000, although those levels should be viewed as potential resistance areas rather than fixed predictions.

The longer-term context also supports the possibility that the market is moving into a different phase.

Brave New Coin previously examined how Dave’s Logarithmic Growth Curve placed Bitcoin near a historically important accumulation zone after its decline from the October 2025 high. Another analysis highlighted the significance of Bitcoin’s return to its 200-week moving average, a level that has historically appeared near major cycle bottoms.

None of that proves the bear market is over. Bitcoin remains roughly 45% below its record high, and Federal Reserve policymakers have warned that additional tightening could become necessary if inflation remains elevated.

But major reversals rarely begin when everyone agrees the danger has passed. They begin when the market has become so accustomed to disappointment that a single powerful move changes what traders believe is possible.

In April 2019, that shift arrived almost overnight. Dave the Wave’s chart suggests Bitcoin may have just experienced another one.