Dave the Wave – Bitcoin & the Logarithmic Growth Curve
Dave the Wave is a pseudonymous investor, trader, and technical analyst. A contrarian, Dave is respected on Crypto Twitter for his objective, rational approach to technical analysis. Dave’s thesis is that Bitcoin is following his Logarithmic Growth Curve model. Logarithmic growth suggests exponential gains at the beginning that slowly taper off towards a plateau in the long term.
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Dave the Wave has a gentleman’s agreement with Plan B (stock to flow). If Bitcoin achieves a price above $100K by December this year, the stock to flow model will remain valid, and Dave’s Logarithmic Growth Curve will be invalidated. If Bitcoin fails to break $100K by December, then stock to flow is invalidated and the Logarithmic Growth Curve remains valid.
Dave says that Bitcoin is a nascent currency in the process of capitalization. There are periods of volatility in both directions as new people add and subtract liquidity in adoption waves. Bitcoin is following the path of gold that was capitalized over hundreds if not thousands of years, Bitcoin has already reached a market-cap of 1T in just 12 years.
Despite sometimes being misunderstood as bearish, Dave says that if Bitcoin follows the Logarithmic Growth Curve, Bitcoin will hit somewhere between $500k and $1million in approx ten years time.
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