Lithium Carbonate Futures Gain 2.21% Despite Continued Weak Spot Prices

The above futures gain was at 2.21% on Raging Buffalo’s SMM chart from the settlement price, despite ongoing downward momentum in spot carbonate, spodumene concentrate, and lithium hydroxide markets, according to Carl Capolingua.

Lithium Futures Rebound Off Intraday Low

SMM put the LC2609 contract at 143,300 yuan/ton at the close, up 3,100 yuan (2.21%) on the previous settlement of 140,200 yuan/ton. Carl Capolingua reported the same futures price at 143,300 yuan, a higher 1.2% gain, which measures the close to the previous closing price of 141,620 yuan/ton rather than settlement.

Trading was at 142,980 yuan/ton opening, with sellers pushing the price to 137,220 yuan/ton. Buyers re-entered, and the price broke above 140,000 yuan/ton by the afternoon. The rebound reached a daily high of 145,200 yuan/ton before the price softened to 143,300 yuan/ton at the closing price.

Meanwhile, as per the chart, the price remained higher than the opening price and the previous close. Volume at 282,781 contracts was around 39.98 billion yuan in turnover. Open interest closed at 370,958 contracts, down 4,227.

SMM’s intra-day chart shows most of the volume came in during the upward move and the price traded between 142,000 and 145,000 yuan/ton. Immediate resistance is at the 145,200 yuan/ton high, while support is found around 142,900 yuan/ton before the previous settlement of 140,200 yuan/ton.

Spot Lithium Markets Remain Softer

Physical lithium prices did not follow the futures upward move. Carl Capolingua reported the SMM spot price for lithium carbonate at 143,000 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. That is about the same as the futures close but with different price movement and timing. Spot carbonate prices continued to ease while futures turned higher on the session.

Spodumene concentrate prices also stayed soft. SMM’s concentrate index at $2,075/ton is down 0.5%, while Australian spot concentrate was at $2,100/ton, also down 0.5% in both cases. Spodumene is a key raw material for producing lithium chemicals.

Lithium hydroxide recorded a deeper decline than carbonate and spodumene concentrate, at 0.8%. SMM put 56.5% hydroxide at 130,500 yuan/ton. All of these readings show different conditions prevailing in futures compared to physical commodity markets.

Futures were on the rise while spot chemical and mined concentrate prices trended lower.

Raging Buffalo’s chart shows futures broke below reference on an earlier dip before the afternoon rebound, which sent the contract well above the daily average on a sharp run higher.

Lithium Americas Nears a Rising Trendline

MarketMaestro analyzed Lithium Americas shares instead of the contract. The chart indicates a downtrend in shares following an earlier rebound, reflecting both macro market conditions and company-specific issues, with the dilution impact and risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz cited as further pressure.

A rising support line drawn through the 2012 low continues upward, and shares traded back toward the long-term trendline with the recent price decline.

According to the chart, the shares bounced off the trend line during 2024 and 2025 before rising toward averages, at which they turned lower again.

Several moving averages are now above the last candle, suggesting a strong area of resistance. Previous resistance at the $9 horizontal level also sits well above price. Momentum indicators are looking weaker after a positive surge in 2025, and the monthly RSI is below the signal line with slower growth trend bars. The rising support line is nearing the current price level.