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Data Snippet – Twitter topics, sentiment, and the Bitcoin halving

Brave New Coin (BNC) processes around 34 million tweets a day related to the top 60 crypto assets. The English language tweets are filtered by topic, after which automated tweets and advertisements are removed. This data provides valuable insight into macro trends relating to specific crypto projects, as well as changing attitudes in the face of market news or large events.

BNC tracked the number of unique Twitter users mentioning “BTC”, “Bitcoin” or “$BTC”, in the days leading up to the Bitcoin halving. As expected, the number of users tweeting about bitcoin peaked on the day of the halving.

Data Snippet - Twitter topics, sentiment, and the Bitcoin halving (1)

We can also look at the aggregate sentiment of these tweets. BNC assigns a sentiment score to each tweet using a Naive Bayes classifier and an extensive lexicon of crypto-specific terminology. The model has been trained with a labeled, historic dataset of crypto-related tweets. The per tweet score is then aggregated to a daily score.

Data Snippet - Twitter topics, sentiment, and the Bitcoin halving (2)

Chart Features

  • Line: Hourly close of the BTC spot price from the BNC BLX.
  • Bars: Count of unique users mentioning “BTC”, “Bitcoin” or “$BTC”.
  • Bar Color: A normalized sentiment score representing the proportion of bitcoin related tweets labelled as positive vs negative. A sentiment score of -10 would demonstrate a much larger proportion of tweets with negative sentiment.

Insights:

  • The sentiment around bitcoin remained largely positive in the week leading up to the halving, likely driven by a nearly 40% recovery in BTC price throughout April.
  • The only day where sentiment flipped negative was on May 10th, following a 10% crash in the bitcoin price.

DEEP DIVE INTO TOPICS OF INTEREST

Diving deeper, we explore the ten most popular topics, ranked by aggregate likes, co-mentioned with bitcoin on the two days leading up to the Bitcoin Halving, and the day of the event.

Data Snippet - Twitter topics, sentiment, and the Bitcoin halving (3)

  • The majority of topics revolved around the price crash on May 10th.
  • As we saw in the above sentiment chart, topics were largely negative.
  • Some of this negative sentiment was also likely driven by an outage on Coinbase Pro, leaving many users unable to access their accounts.

Data Snippet - Twitter topics, sentiment, and the Bitcoin halving (4)

  • Attention quickly turned back to the approaching Halving event on May 11th.
  • Several topics revolved around the inflationary advantage of Bitcoin over fiat money.

Another topic that gained traction on the 11th was the announcement by Paul Tudor Jones that he holds a portion of his portfolio in BTC. Interestingly, Jones’ statement also commented on the inflation characteristics of Bitcoin, believing it will be a useful hedge against inflation over the next 4 years. Bitcoin mentions by important figures, either in the finance industry or elsewhere, often capture a large portion of attention on Twitter.

Data Snippet - Twitter topics, sentiment, and the Bitcoin halving (5)

Insights:

  • “Gemini” was the most discussed and liked topic on the day of the halving, as JPMorgan offered bank accounts for Gemini.
  • Price was the second most discussed and liked topic on Twitter.

Takeaways/Summary:

  1. Major price jumps and events like the bitcoin halving attract crypto users on twitter.
  2. This halving event attracted an all-time high number of users.
  3. Users tweet about the price of Bitcoin on a regular basis, but topics like "JPMorgan" and "Paul Tudor" can quickly gain traction.

For future social in-depth analysis, sign up or tune in for daily insights by BNC.


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