Metals Market Update as China Lithium Carbonate Prices Climb Back Above $25K

Lithium’s recovery is gaining fresh attention after a Goldman Sachs research note pointed to tighter conditions forming in China’s battery supply chain.

Price charts shared by Juan Carlos Zuleta also showed a stronger short-term move. Battery-grade lithium carbonate has moved back above $25,000 per ton, while China’s most actively traded futures contract rose again on June 12.

Goldman Note Flags 4Q26 Tightness

The Goldman research note said the 2026 lithium demand-supply setup looks similar to the 2020 and 2021 market structure. That period marked the final stage of the previous downcycle before prices recovered strongly.

According to the note, lithium carbonate prices fell toward industry cost-support levels in the first half of 2025. Trade war pressure and weaker demand added to that decline, but the consultant now expects both pricing and supply-demand balance to reverse through 2026.

Tightness is expected to become clearer in the fourth quarter. Energy storage system demand remains a key driver, while supply growth continues to lag.

China mine pauses linked to license renewals also remain a supply-side factor. Moreover, policy uncertainty in Africa and refining constraints could add pressure if restocking accelerates later in the year.

Carbonate Prices Rebound Above $25K

Zuleta said spot lithium carbonate has surpassed $25,000 per ton as of June 12. The shared chart placed VAT-included battery-grade lithium carbonate at $25,138.59 per ton, while the VAT-excluded price stood near $22,246.54 per ton.

The one-month price chart still shows lithium below mid-May levels, but the latest candles indicate a clear rebound from the early-June low. Price moved from near the lower part of the range back toward $25,000, marking a short-term recovery after several weeks of pressure.

Zuleta also noted that lithium carbonate is up 47% year-to-date and 202% from the second major bottom. The current move also marks the fifth straight day of rising and stable prices, according to his post.

That recovery matches the market narrative in the Goldman note. After a long downcycle, spot prices are now responding to expectations of tighter supply, stronger battery demand, and renewed restocking.

Futures Strengthen in Contango

China’s LC2609 futures contract also rose at the close of trading. The contract finished at RMB175,300 per ton, up RMB3,940, or 2.30%, on June 12.

Intraday data showed an opening price of RMB176,000, a high of RMB178,740, and a low of RMB174,600. Turnover reached RMB34.79 billion, while open interest stood at 447,123.

The Goldman note said restocking could lift fourth-quarter lithium carbonate prices toward RMB200,000 per ton. It also mentioned upside toward roughly RMB250,000 per ton, although that level was described as hard to sustain as energy storage customers become more price-sensitive.

At current exchange levels, Zuleta said RMB250,000 per ton would equal about $37,000 per ton. That would place prices near his earlier forecast range of $20,000 to $25,000 over two years, followed by a move toward $40,000 later.

For now, lithium’s latest price action shows a market moving away from its recent lows. The next test is whether spot strength, futures gains, and restocking demand can carry the rebound into the fourth quarter.