Toncoin (TON) Price Prediction: Rising Activity Signals Potential Rebound As Bitcoin Dips Below $100k

Toncoin has exhibited strong resilience despite market challenges, with ecosystem growth, rising participant activity, and key metrics signaling a potential price rebound.
The cryptocurrency market has faced a turbulent period, with assets like Toncoin (TON) experiencing significant fluctuations. Over the past week, Toncoin has experienced a 24% decline, raising concerns among investors, following the DeepSeek market crash.
However, steady trading volumes and growing on-chain activity suggest that the digital asset may be on the brink of recovery. As of this writing, Toncoin is trading at $4.90, reflecting a modest 0.7% increase in the last 24 hours, despite a broader monthly decline of 15%.
TON/USD weekly price action: Brave New Coin
Some developments within the Toncoin blockchain, such as surpassing 1 billion transaction records in September 2024, signal progress in its ecosystem. Meanwhile, increasing large-scale participant activity has sparked discussions about whether these factors could catalyze a rebound in Toncoin’s value.
Toncoin’s Market Metrics Indicate Potential Rebound
Toncoin’s blockchain infrastructure has shown remarkable growth, demonstrating resilience amidst broader market challenges. Data from Tonscan reveals that the network has now processed over 1 billion transactions, a milestone largely fueled by its massive user base of over 950 million Telegram users who can seamlessly interact with TON-based blockchain applications directly within the messaging platform.
TON network has now processed over 1 billion. Source: Tonscan data
The introduction of the FinTax Telegram Mini App is another development that has caught attention. This tool integrates seamlessly with TON wallets, providing users with advanced financial management features while ensuring anonymity.
Key indicators suggest that Toncoin may be approaching a recovery phase. According to data from CryptoQuant, the Normalized Risk Metric (NRM) for Toncoin has been trending lower. This metric evaluates the risk-reward ratio of an asset based on historical price movements. With the NRM nearing zero, Toncoin is entering a low-risk territory that has historically aligned with local price bottoms.
For instance, in August 2024, Toncoin’s price rose from $5.3 to $6.8 when the NRM was below 0.1. Similar trends were observed in September, with the price climbing from $4.6 to $5.9 under comparable conditions. Although the NRM has not reached its lowest level, its trajectory hints at a potential rebound in the coming weeks.
Toncoin holdersSource: Santiment
The on-chain analysis of Toncoin (TON) reveals steady growth in the total number of holders, currently at 34.9K, showcasing rising adoption despite recent market turbulence. Over the observed period (July 2024 – January 2025), Toncoin’s price experienced notable fluctuations, dropping to $4.89, while the holder count increased consistently.
This divergence between price and holder count indicates sustained investor confidence, even as the market faced broader downtrends. Key on-chain metrics, such as the Normalized Risk Metric, suggest the price is nearing a low-risk zone, which has historically coincided with local bottoms and potential rebounds.
Broader Market Trends and Toncoin’s Potential
The global cryptocurrency market has faced widespread bearish sentiment, with major assets experiencing notable declines. Bitcoin, for instance, dropped 5.88% to trade at $98,813.25, while Ethereum and XRP fell by 7.33% and 9.93%, respectively. This downturn has been fueled by macroeconomic uncertainties, including concerns over prolonged high interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
Despite these challenges, Toncoin has demonstrated resilience. Its steady trading volume amidst broader market turbulence suggests growing interest in the asset. Analysts believe that Toncoin’s ecosystem growth and rising participant activity could help it weather the storm and possibly emerge stronger.
Expert Predictions on Toncoin’s Price: Can Toncoin Rebound?
Crypto analysts have offered varying predictions for Toncoin’s future price performance. A popular analyst forecasts a rally toward a new all-time high of $9, driven by increasing market participation and ecosystem developments. Meanwhile, projections from Coincodex suggest a more ambitious short-term rise to $16.13.
Source: X
These predictions are supported by Toncoin’s strong on-chain metrics and growing ecosystem utility. Toncoin is trading near the $5.0 level, showing signs of consolidation after recent declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a reading of around 40.93, suggesting the asset is in a neutral zone but edging closer to an oversold condition, which could attract buyers.
TON/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Trading View
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line shows bearish momentum easing, as the MACD signal is close to crossing into a potential bullish reversal zone. This combination of RSI and MACD signals highlights a likely recovery in the short term if trading volume increases and broader market conditions stabilize.
Final Thoughts
Toncoin has shown resilience in the face of market challenges, with growing ecosystem developments and increasing participant activity. The recent price movements, reflected in technical indicators, suggest that the cryptocurrency may be nearing a potential reversal.
Overall, while challenges remain, Toncoin’s growing ecosystem and the signals from technical indicators point toward a possible rebound. Investors should remain vigilant and consider both technical metrics and broader market trends when making trading decisions.
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