Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: BTC Turns $79K into Support as Risk-On Signal Points to Fresh Rally Toward $100K

The move has also coincided with a shift in Glassnode’s Bitcoin Vector framework. The proprietary model moved into a Risk-On regime on August 21, marking a significant change from the Risk-Off phase that followed Bitcoin’s previous cycle high near $126,000. Glassnode’s public data confirms the August 21 inflection and describes the reading as an “Optimal risk-on environment.”

However, the signal does not remove the resistance BTC faces above $80,000. Glassnode’s latest market analysis shows that the recovery has stalled beneath a major supply area around $83,000-$86,000, leaving the cryptocurrency at an important technical juncture.

Bitcoin Holds Near $79K as Resistance Comes Into Focus

Bitcoin’s recent price action has placed $79,000 among the key short-term levels for traders.

The cryptocurrency rallied sharply from its August lows and briefly moved above $80,000. Recent market data shows that BTC subsequently tested levels above $82,000, reaching a high of about $82,164 before retreating.

Bitcoin has turned bullish on the daily timeframe, breaking its long-term trendline and consolidating below the $82K–$84K resistance zone in a bullish flag pattern. Source: PremiumTrader57 on TradingView

That move brings the $82,000-$84,000 region into focus. A TradingView analysis by PremiumTrader57 identifies $82,000-$84,000 as the immediate resistance band and describes the current structure as a bullish flag.

Under that setup, a sustained move above the resistance zone could turn the area into support and strengthen the technical case for a move toward $98,000-$100,000. The analyst also identifies approximately $68,000 as a deeper potential retracement area based on an inverse fair value gap.

Those levels remain technical scenarios rather than confirmed price targets. BTC would first need to establish acceptance above the current resistance before the $100,000 region becomes a more credible upside objective.

Glassnode’s Risk-On Signal Changes the Market Backdrop

The latest Bitcoin price prediction is also being influenced by a notable change in Glassnode’s market-regime model.

Bitcoin Vector previously moved to Risk-Off in October 2025 as the price approached its $126,000 cycle high. According to Glassnode, the framework subsequently identified a new Risk-On inflection on August 21, 2026. The model uses momentum and capital-flow data to classify Bitcoin into different market regimes.

The Bitcoin Vector Signal has flipped back to risk-on after previously signaling the $126K top, following a 54% BTC drawdown after turning risk-off in October 2025. Source: Glassnode via X

The timing is significant because BTC experienced a substantial correction after the earlier Risk-Off signal. The cryptocurrency eventually fell toward the $60,000 region before recovering.

Still, investors should distinguish between a regime indicator and a price target. A Risk-On reading suggests that the conditions measured by the model have improved; it does not guarantee that BTC will continue rising.

Glassnode’s broader research supports that caution. Its latest Week On-Chain report says the August relief rally stalled below long-term overhead supply and that the price remains within an established trading range. The firm places the primary downside reference around $62,000-$65,000 while identifying the $83,000-$86,000 region as the main overhead barrier.

$82K-$84K Becomes the Next Test for BTC

The technical picture becomes clearer if Bitcoin can reclaim the resistance zone above $82,000.

A recent market analysis identified $82,793, close to the May high, as a major resistance level. It also noted that the price had moved above several major moving averages during its recovery, including the 21-, 55-, 100- and 200-day averages.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart (1-week). Source: Brave New Coin

A decisive break above the $82,000-$84,000 area could therefore provide stronger evidence that the recent recovery is developing into a broader advance.

The next potential objective would be the $90,000 region, followed by the psychological $100,000 level. Reuters noted that a break above the $82,793 resistance could open the way toward $90,000 and potentially Bitcoin’s 2026 high near $97,867.

For now, however, the market has not fully cleared that supply.

Trading Range Keeps $79K in Focus

Another technical view highlights the importance of avoiding premature conclusions.

Trader JG_traders previously identified the $79,500 and $75,800 areas as useful trading zones on the four-hour chart. With BTC trading around $79,000-$80,000, the asset is positioned closer to the middle of its broader range than at either extreme.

Both zones provided strong entries for the initial moves higher and lower, while BTC is currently holding around $79K but remains near the middle of the range. Source: @JG_traders via X

That positioning can reduce the attractiveness of opening a new trade. The upper boundary around $82,800-$83,000 remains a level to monitor, while a decline toward the lower zones could provide a different risk-reward setup.

This range-bound behavior is consistent with Glassnode’s latest assessment. The analytics firm said Bitcoin’s relief rally encountered overhead supply after reaching the $80,000 area, while options positioning and subdued market activity indicate that volatility expectations have been resetting.

Rising Volume Adds Weight to the Recovery

Trading activity has also increased during Bitcoin’s latest advance.

CryptoQuant data cited in the supplied analysis shows spot trading volumes rising several-fold during the move toward $80,000, with Binance accounting for a large share of activity. The data also indicated repeated periods in which whale-related exchange inflows exceeded 2,000 BTC per hour, while average Binance deposit sizes moved above 50 BTC.

Bitcoin’s rally toward $80K was supported by a sharp surge in spot volume, while whale inflows repeatedly exceeded 2,000 BTC per hour and average deposits rose above 50 BTC. Source: @cryptoquant_com via X

Such activity suggests that larger market participants were active during the rally. It does not, however, establish whether those transfers represented accumulation or preparations to sell.

The distinction matters because large exchange deposits can precede either increased liquidity or selling pressure. As a result, exchange-flow data is more useful when combined with price action, spot volume and broader demand indicators.

August Rally Came Without Extreme Crowd Optimism

Bitcoin’s August performance provides another important part of the market picture.

BTC gained roughly 25% during the month, climbing from around $64,700 to approximately $78,300 in the middle of August. That represented Bitcoin’s strongest August performance since 2017, according to the supplied market data.

BTC closed August up roughly 25%, rising from about $64.7K on August 18 to $78.3K by August 21 and marking its strongest August since 2017. Source: @SantimentData via X

Yet crowd sentiment did not rise at the same pace.

Average sentiment during the rally was reportedly around +32, compared with approximately +72 during July. An early-August Coldcard hardware-wallet exploit, which reportedly involved more than $100 million worth of Bitcoin, contributed to a sharp deterioration in sentiment.

The divergence between price and sentiment is notable. BTC advanced without the extreme optimism that often accompanies major market tops.

That can be interpreted in several ways. It may indicate that investors remained cautious despite the recovery, or simply that the rally had not yet generated widespread speculative enthusiasm.

Bitcoin ETF and Macro Factors Remain Important

Technical signals are only one part of the Bitcoin price outlook. Institutional flows and broader financial conditions remain important drivers of BTC prices.

Glassnode reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed as much as $290 million per day during the recent recovery, although secondary ETF turnover remained relatively subdued at around $3 billion per day. The firm characterized the rally as having elements of a news-driven impulse rather than a move supported by consistently strong market velocity.

Macro conditions could also influence whether the price breaks through resistance.

Glassnode highlighted a rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.8% as a renewed source of pressure on risk assets. Higher yields can make traditional fixed-income investments more attractive and tighten financial conditions, potentially limiting demand for assets such as Bitcoin.

This leaves the near-term Bitcoin forecast dependent on both technical and macro developments rather than any single indicator.

Bitcoin Prediction: Can BTC Reach $100K?

The $100,000 level remains a potential upside milestone, but Bitcoin still has several technical hurdles to clear first.

The immediate challenge is the $82,000-$84,000 region, with broader supply extending toward $86,000. A sustained breakout above this area would improve the technical structure and could put $90,000 and eventually $100,000 back into focus.

The Risk-On reading from Bitcoin Vector provides additional evidence that market conditions have improved from the weakness seen after the 2025 peak. However, Glassnode’s latest research makes clear that BTC remains below significant overhead supply.

On the downside, $75,800-$79,000 represents an important area to watch in the near term, while the $62,000-$65,000 region remains a much broader structural support zone according to Glassnode.

Therefore, the current Bitcoin price prediction is best framed as a conditional outlook rather than a fixed forecast. Holding the $79,000 area and breaking decisively above $82,000-$84,000 would strengthen the bullish case. Failure to clear resistance, particularly if accompanied by weakening volume or renewed macro pressure, could instead keep BTC within its established range.

For now, Bitcoin’s market structure has improved, but the path toward $100,000 still depends on whether buyers can absorb the substantial supply waiting above $80,000.