Bitcoin ETF in 2017? A Look at Potential Impact and Probability

After years of work and investor anticipation the rule change necessary to pave the way for the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF will see a final decision from the SEC by March 11. Overall, we think that the listing of a bitcoin ETF would have a profoundly positive effect on the price of bitcoin not only because of the resulting asset inflow but also because of concurrent shifts in perception and regulatory risk. Overall, however, we think the probability of approval is very low. Taken together, we think the positive effect that a bitcoin ETF would have on the price of bitcoin is vastly underappreciated and that the probability of approval is drastically overestimated within the industry.