Crypto Market Forecast: 9th September

Another volatile week in the crypto markets ended with the Bitcoin bulls back in charge. The BTC price is sitting at the ~$10,350 level to finish the week up ~6%. The altcoin markets had a positive week with large caps ETH, LTC, and XMR posting weekly gains of ~3%, ~5%, and ~10%. The overall crypto market cap rose ~8%.

The week’s crypto news cycle was defined by the soft-launch of two new investment products. On September 3rd the VanEck-SolidX consortium announced that it will soon launch an ETF-like Bitcoin product for large US investors. The product falls under 144A of the 1933 securities act, and through this ‘loophole’ the group will be able to issue shares in the VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin Trust to institutional investors. The same consortium has been unsuccessfully seeking approval from the SEC to launch a Bitcoin ETF, and this appears to be a stop-gap solution while the SEC drags its heels.

BNY Mellon will act as the trust’s daily fund accountant, administrator and transfer agent, complimenting a syndicate of underwriters that have provided 125 million US dollars of insurance. The shares began trading on the 5th of September quoted on OTC Link ATS, an SEC-regulated alternative trading system. The launch does not fulfill VanEck-SolidX’s larger vision of creating a Bitcoin ETF accessible by retail investors, however, it does open the door for more institutional investors in the United States to add BTC exposure to their portfolios.

On September 6th the Bakkt Warehouse solution launched as expected. ‘Warehouse’ is Bakkt’s secure, credited Bitcoin custody solution. Bakkt can now accept Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals before the official trading of its Bitcoin futures monthly and daily contracts begins on September 23rd.

A tweet announcement from Bakkt on Friday appeared to coincide with a sharp ~$700 BTC price drop. Some analysts suggested a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ scenario. It’s possible that the confirmation of Bakkt’s release dates may mark the end of a period where large traders were able to front-run the news.

Regardless, this week marked the first tangible releases from the most anticipated mainstream investment vehicles, Bakkt, and the VanEck-SolidX ETF. However, both releases are smaller pieces of a larger jigsaw that is still being pieced together. The ETF is not yet available to retail traders, and Bakkt launched a secure custody platform where Bitcoin can be deposited and withdrawn, but not yet traded.

Although the market reaction was positive, more robust and widely accessible mainstream products are needed to create the bullish sentiment necessary to push the markets toward new all-time highs.

In the meantime, traders such as Peter Brandt argue that Bitcoin is in a descending triangle chart pattern. It should resolve in the coming week, are you bullish or bearish?

Upcoming events in crypto

September 11-12th- [Invest: Asia 2019 conference]

This two-day conference held in Singapore focuses on the important role Asia plays in the digital asset space. The event features an impressive list of speakers including Jeremy Allaire (CEO and co-founder of Circle) and Su Zhu (CEO of Three Arrows Capital).

September 12th – Binance.com no longer available to US customers

As per an updated Terms of Use document from the Binance exchange, users from the United States will no longer be able to access the trading platform (users will still be able access wallets and funds). According to reports, on a given month 15% of the website’s visitors are from the U.S.

Top 10 Crypto market cap

It was a strong week for most large cap assets with green trading across the board and more than 5% gains for most assets. US dollar stablecoin, Tether, continues to rise up the market cap rankings and currently occupies the number 6 spot, having sat on the 8th position this time last month. Tether token operations have been the largest user of gas on the Ethereum network over the last month and the stablecoin has benefited from volatile market conditions.

7 day BLX

It was a strong start to September for Bitcoin bulls with BTC surging back above the $10,000 level. The buying pressure was likely driven by two key macro events, the VanEck-SolidX ETF and Bakkt product releases. September 23rd will be a key date for Bitcoin traders. Sell pressure may follow the launch of Bakkt’s Bitcoin futures trading to mark the completion of the news cycle.