Crypto Market Forecast: The week ahead, 22nd October

Over the past 7 days, digital asset market found typically idiosyncratic ways to bounce back following large sell-offs the week prior. Wider markets benefited from a sell-off of popular US dollar peg, USDT, to purchase BTC and other crypto, during a chaotic trading period on Monday morning UTC.

Following the action on Monday, while USDT temporarily lost its 1:1 for peg with the US dollar and ~17.5 of its market cap over the course of the week, the overall market cap for crypto grew by ~4% and leading large cap alts BTC, ETH and XRP grew by ~3%, ~3% and ~9% respectively.

For traders, the instability of Tether provides an interesting conundrum of whether to opt into other more regulated stablecoin options such as Gemini dollars, Circle dollars or TrueUSD, which offer the same 1:1 to USD option to Tether, but with more apparent more robustness and security.

Liquidity and availability have likely been Tether’s greatest driver of value, but with a new number of stablecoin options tradeable on exchanges like Huobi and Okex, the stablecoin flippening may continue to unfold.

One of 2018’s most discussed crypto trends, institutional participation, continued with major wall street player Fidelity Investments, announcing the launch of a crypto arm, Fidelity digital assets. The subsidiary will aim to offer Bitcoin, Ethereum and other digital asset based products with improved custody solutions. The size and name value of Fidelity has a number of market observers excited by this new venture.

Upcoming Events in Crypto

22nd October- IBM Blockchain World Wire launch Stellar launch

The Stellar network launches an institutional focused cross-border payment settlement solution, in partnership with IBM, this week in Sydney. The service will let counterparties use a stablecoin, or any other digital asset, as a bridge between two fiat pairs. It promises to be cheap and instantaneous, challenging similar blockchain solutions like the Ripple Xrapid solution and traditional institutions like SWIFT. TheStellar Lumens token has had a strong week and looks set to continuous this momentum post-world wire launch.

24th October- Blockchains for Sustainable Development at the World Investment Forum

The conference, run alongside the bi-annual World Investment forum in Geneva, features key speakers from the crypto world including Changpeng "CZ" Zhao of Binance, Vanessa Grellet of Consensys and Galia Bernatazi of Bancor. The event will represent a cross-section of Blockchain, governments and philanthropists within the European ecosystem. Topics likely to be covered include GDPR & data privacy, crypto custody solutions, and crypto regulation within forward looking jurisdictions like Malta.

**26th October- CME last trading day (Quarterly round) **

This week the latest round of quarterly CME BTC futures (XBT) ends trading. The nature of futures contracts means they need to be settled on a set predefined date based on a contract. All CME contracts will have to be traded before this date, to avoid having to deal with the complication of having to deliver on the underlying asset. There is generally a fall in the trading volume of futures around expiration dates, as traders prefer cash settlement over an expired contract, and having to deal with delivery hassles. Popular and well respected analyst Josh Olszewicz has pointed to the days surrounding 26th as a potential key moving day for BTC markets.

Top 10 Crypto Summary

It was a strong week for most large cap alts, ETH trading up ~4% and above $200, as well as XRP up ~10% and above 0.45. Outside of the top 10 news aggregator Cryptocurrency Newsfeed identified Coinbase officially listing Ethereum-based ZRX for trading/buying on its platforms. The token was a standout among alts, surging ~25% in the last 7 days on the back of support from crypto’s bluechip infrastructure solution provider. Within the top 10, Monero (XMR) was able to impress with the networks new Bulletproof solution that has drastically reduced transaction costs and times.

Despite BTC prices growing steadily over the last week, and finding stability above $6,400 price level, concerns and uncertainty remain in Bitcoin markets as volumes hit a yearly low on Sunday. BTC has not made a major move since August, and for the most part price have hovered between a tight $6,200 and $6,800 space during this period.

A number of analysts in the market have ordered for patience and hodling, taking a ‘stronger the base, the larger the launch’ mindset to the ongoing extended period of sideways movement and low volatility.