Crypto Market Forecast: The week ahead, 5th November

As the 10 year anniversary of the Bitcoin whitepaper was observed, several tokens celebrated the occasion with strong green trading weeks.

However, despite intense media attention on the Bitcoin network, with positive buzz created from stories like Morgan Stanley recognizing BTC as a new institutional asset, most of the trading action happened in the alt-coin markets with the BTC price moving an insignificant 0.05% over the last 7 days.

Large cap alts, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Monero (XMR) had impressive 29% and 9% rises respectively. As highlighted by Cryptocurrency Newsfeed, these jumps were primarily driven by idiosyncratic factors unique to the two networks.

With a hardfork of Bitcoin Cash now confirmed for the 15th of November, FOMO buyers appear to be flocking to buy BCH knowing they will receive a new ‘free’ digital asset 1: 1, for held BCH on that date.

Additionally, the fact that Binance will be supporting the hard fork transition and issuance of new tokens on behalf of customers, made Bitcoin Cash a clear investment choice over the last weekend. Other exchanges like Coinbase Pro and Poloniex have also announced support for the fork.

Traders beware, however, that speculative price action and volatility is likely to intensify until and around the 15th, which will make finding a clean exit point a tricky proposition.

Finally, the Monero network was buoyed by news that popular exchange Kraken, would be reducing transaction fees for XMR. This makes the token more accessible and liquid and serves as an endorsement of Monero’s recent Bulletproof upgrades which were designed make its blockchain cheaper and faster.

Upcoming Events in Crypto

**November 5th **- SEC ETF deadline date for review of 9 Bitcoin ETF’s

Following a proposed rule change to the SEC ETF decision making process, 9 ETF’s from 3 issuers are currently being re-reviewed having previously been rejected. Being back on the block has allowed ETF submitters to provide additional supporting documentation to help their cases and gain permission for their products to be listed on the NYSE ARCA and CBOE exchanges. While approval is a long shot, there is likely to be a speculative battle between longers and shorters surrounding the decision dates.

**November 11th **- Callisto Network implementation of Cold staking

CLO, a forked token from the Ethereum Classic network will begin offering holders a ‘cold-staking’ option, that lets them lock a certain amount of tokens for an extended period and earn a passive interest rate for those funds. While CLO has a very small market cap, what makes this fork significant, is that the Callisto Network is a reference implementation, or experimental arm of the Ethereum Classic network. Meaning if the Callisto Cold stake option is well received, then there are direct implications for the larger parent network.

**November 12th to November 14th – **German Economic Summit

While not a crypto-specific event, it is likely significant that IOTA co-founder Dominik Schiener will be sharing a platform with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as well as Serbian and Icelandic Prime ministers Ana Brnabić and Katrín Jakobsdóttir. Schiener’s front-and-centre position at the summit adds legitimacy and exposure to IOTA — considered by many to be a market leading fintech solution. The token is currently a top 15 crypto project by market cap and trades at ~$0.498 up ~4% over the last week.

Top 10 Crypto Summary

It was a middling, red trading week for most large cap alts and BTC. Top 3 tokens BTC, ETH and XRP were all able to find psychological support and temporary homes around the $6400, $200 and $0.45 price levels and this may be a relief to some hodlers.

Standout privacy token XMR had a more challenging week than its top-3 counterparts, however, based on recent analysis, both technicals and fundamentals indicate that the possibility of a future trend reversal is strong backed by recent network updates and awaiting buying volume.

As we approach November 2018, as strange as this may sound, BTC (based on 20-day volatility charts) is more stable than a number of the NASDAQ’s most popular Bluechip stocks including Netflix, Amazon and Nvidia. The Bitcoin price remained within a tight $100 range between $6400-$6500 all week, despite potential needle movers such as the close of the most recent round of quarterly CME futures during the time period.

For BTC backers and maximalists this is an added indicator of Bitcoin’s growing maturity as an investment option, and fuel against detractors who have previously pointed to its volatility as the primary strike against mainstream adoption.