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Crypto Market Forecast: W/C 16th November 2020

A curated weekly summary of forward-focused crypto news that matters. This week, Paypal doubles down on support for crypto - nudging Bitcoin up to $16,500, only one survivor emerges from the Bitcoin Cash hard fork, and an incoming Republican senator who's pro-Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin price was up ~3% over the course of the week as its bull run continues to pick up steam. There were mixed results across the rest of the crypto market as defi tokens like Uniswap (UNI) and Aave (AAVE) enjoyed gains of more than 20% while much of the rest of the altcoin market was in the red. Over the course of the week the Ethereum price fell by ~1% and the Ripple Price was up ~6%. The overall market cap for crypto assets rose by ~3%.

Paypal continued to drive demand with the payments giant announcing on November 12th that it would be enabling all eligible account holders in the US to buy, hold and sell cryptocurrency. The company also announced it would be upping the weekly crypto purchase limits from USD10,000 to USD15,000 citing strong demand for its new service. On the back of the Paypal news, the BTC price jumped from ~USD15,624 to trading at ~USD16,449 in just over 24 hours.

On November 15th, the Bitcoin Cash blockchain forked into two chains, BCHA and BCHN, following a controversial network upgrade that split its dev teams and community. Disagreements occurred because of technical details on how to improve difficulty adjustments and suggestions by the team behind BCHA to set aside a certain percentage of block rewards for development costs.

Most miners appear to have chosen BCHN as their preferred chain to allocate hash power towards. Coin.dance reports that of the last 1000 blocks mined on Bitcoin cash chains, 84.6% have been on the BCHN chain, 15.4% have not been signaled, and 0% have been mined on the BCHA chain. The prospect that the BCHA fork will end up as a ghost chain is made even more likely given that several major exchanges have chosen not to list the BCHA token. One that has is Bitfinex, where the token currently trades for USD12.40. The opposing BCHN fork is still traded on most exchanges and at USD240 is only down around 11% from the pre-split BCH price.

Also last week, Senator-elect for the state of Wyoming Cynthia Lummis told ABC during an interview that she hopes to bring Bitcoin into the national conversation. She said she was a former state treasurer and had invested in Wyoming’s permanent funds. “So I was always looking for a good store of value. Bitcoin fits that bill.” With a Bitcoiner now sitting as a lawmaker in Congress, there is hope that the understanding of the digital asset value proposition will now be more widely understood by US regulators.

Crypto news for the week ahead

November 16th -20th– Stellar Meridian virtual conference

This week Stellar (XLM) hosts its annual community conference, Meridian, with the theme of “global connections to solve real world problems”. Speakers at the conference include Linkedin co-founder Reid Hoffman and former President of Liberia Ellen Johnson Sirleaf who is a Nobel Peace Prize recipient and was Africa’s first elected female president. Jed McCaleb, the co-founder and Chief Architect of the Stellar Development Foundation, was recently a guest on BNC’s crypto conversation where he discussed Stellar’s intentions to enhance rather than replace the existing financial system. The price of XLM fell by ~1% over the last week.

November 18th – Zcash hard fork

Zcash (ZEC) is a privacy-oriented fork of the Bitcoin protocol and is set to conduct its first-ever block reward halving on Wednesday. The total number of ZEC awarded to miners per block will reduce from 6.25 ZEC to 3.125 ZEC. A halving is often expected to lead to higher prices because it reduces the amount miners can sell each day for operational expenses. Assuming demand for the privacy store of value stays at the same level, the price of ZEC can be expected to rise post halving. The price of ZEC rose ~1% in the last week.

Top 10 Crypto Summary

Crypto Market Cap w/c 16 November

It was a mixed week for assets in the Brave New Coin market cap top 10. Payment protocol currency XRP was the week’s biggest gainer. Data provider Santiment reports that the number XRP addresses holding between 1milion-10million XRP hit an all-time high of 1350 addresses which suggests whales have been the drivers of this recent price pickup.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Bitcoin Price Chart W/C 16th November

The price of Bitcoin briefly broke past the USD16,000 mark and threatened USD16,500 before retracing over the weekend. Data provider Glassnode reports that Open interest across Bitcoin futures exchanges has just hit an all-time high as investor interest in Bitcoin continues to surge.


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