Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD Holds Near $4,390 as Breakout Faces Weak Intraday Money Flow

The session variation stood around 0.03% lower at 14:03 UTC on TradingView’s data. Price Action the traded created a widened range, from highs around $4,430 to lows around $4,340 throughout the 24- hour cycle to press time.

The precious metal also displayed a recent technical breakout on separate charts that corresponded with long-term reallocation in China’s US Treasury allocation—though with diminishing intraday cash flows.

Gold is expected to run into resistance barriers around the $4,400 and $4,448 markers, whereas several lower targets mark possible areas for support.

Gold Price Breakout Reaches Resistance Zone

One trader identified the XAUUSD perpetual contract reaching near $4,398 in a diagram of technical indicators shared on X by analyst professorcrypto on August 11. The technical pattern depicted showed a strong breakout above a compressed triangle, defined by downward-sloping support levels and rising trendlines.

Price shot to new highs, with a series of substantial green price candles, pushing the contract above a key support structure at about $4,100 before crossing the highlighted value of $4,202.90.

Price briefly reached within the higher bracket of its resistance band at approximately $4,370-4,447.94 but was pulled back before the session’s closure. A brief sell-off below $4,448 indicated significant resistance as the bulls struggled.

Chart Marks Support and Resistance Levels Below the breakout point price. Major support exists at the highlighted ~$ ~$4,202.90. The first Major Support at ~$4,047.74.

China Allocation Chart Adds Long-Term Context

Meanwhile, Macro Alpha on X showed that China’s exposure to United States securities declined to approximately 7.3% by December 2025 from a record high of nearly 30 % in June 2011.

Simultaneously, the country’s gold holdings expanded exponentially from near $40B by 2019 to a projected near $683B by the same time. However, this chart presents an alternative of a devalued US security portion of China’s reserve, not direct correlations.

The blue series of the chart tracks the reported value of Chinese gold stock. It remains flat from the beginning through to around 2019, then nudges upward. It then exhibits exponential growth after 2022, and the value is labeled as $683 billion in November 2025.

This chart shows a reverse long-term trend between Treasury holdings and gold value. Yet it fails to differentiate purchases from value increases. The value could go up in proportion to the price of the bullion.

Intraday Money Flow Weakens Near $4,384

Additionally, the XAUUSD CFD chart on TradingView showed the price at $4,383.622 at 14:03 UTC. Gold spiked briefly above $4,420 soon after midnight but began a gradual decline to approximately $4,340 by early trading.

Money flow showed a 0.20 Chaikin money flow level, below zero—suggesting sellers are on pace to finish the session.

Buyers pushed the price near $4,400 as the New York session approached, but it broke above and quickly slid towards ~$ ~$4,383 as money flow dried up toward the end of the session.