Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Prediction: Can HYPE Hold $39 Support as TD Signal Hints at Pullback?

The asset is currently caught between strong structural inflows from ecosystem growth and caution from technical indicators flashing early exhaustion. This imbalance has shifted short-term focus toward whether buyers can defend key support levels or allow a broader correction to unfold.

TD Sequential and Weekly Signal Flash Early Exhaustion Risk

Technical analyst @ali_charts highlighted that the TD Sequential indicator previously issued a buy signal on January 12, which aligned with HYPE’s climb from roughly $22 to near $44. That move marked one of the asset’s strongest expansion phases.

The TD Sequential shows a weekly sell signal near $40.24, pointing to possible profit-taking toward $36.11–$33.13 after its earlier buy signal correctly captured HYPE’s rally from $22 to $44. Source: Ali Martinez via X 

However, the same framework now shows a weekly TD 9 sell signal, suggesting potential exhaustion after the recent rally. At the time of observation, HYPE trades near $40.24, with the indicator marking possible rotation pressure.

The chart outlines two key downside zones:

• Primary Support: $36.11
• Secondary Support: $33.13

Market participants reacting to the signal describe conditions as increasingly “overextended,” with expectations of a short-term cooldown or profit-taking phase. Still, sentiment remains divided, as structural demand from larger holders continues to offset immediate bearish expectations.

HYPE Price Prediction: ETF Inflows, Buybacks, and Structural Demand

Despite technical caution, fundamental catalysts around Hyperliquid remain strong.

Bitwise recently launched the BHYPE Spot ETF on the NYSE, which includes staking-linked yield exposure. This marks one of the earliest U.S.-listed spot ETF products tied to the asset, introducing a regulated investment channel for institutional capital.

Bitwise’s BHYPE ETF launch, strong buybacks, and institutional inflows drove HYPE to $43, though overheated sentiment raises short-term pullback risks. Source: Winter Soldier via X

Additional ecosystem drivers include:

• HashKey OTC liquidity expansion
• Coinbase-linked USDC treasury integration on Hyperliquid
• Approximately $640M in buybacks and burns
• Around $50M in revenue distribution to token holders (early May)

These mechanisms contribute to ongoing deflationary pressure. On-chain data indicates strong fee generation supporting continuous buyback activity. Reports also note HYPE has appreciated roughly 100% since launch, with market capitalization exceeding $10B, placing it among the top tier of crypto assets.

However, analysts emphasize that rapid inflows often precede consolidation phases, especially when sentiment becomes crowded on the bullish side.

Whale Positioning Signals Rising Derivatives Complexity

On-chain Lens data shows trader @loraclexyz has regained significant profitability through a large leveraged short position on HYPE. The position—reportedly around $58M notional exposure at 5x leverage—turned profitable during the recent price decline, contributing to a restored total account profit of approximately $41.43M.

On-chain data shows trader @loraclexyz’s aggressive 5x short on HYPE turning profitable amid the price decline, pushing total account gains back to $41.43M. Source: Onchain Lens via X  

The trader is also active across multiple markets, including BTC and other altcoins, with combined perpetual exposure exceeding $50M and cumulative trading volume above $1.68B.

This positioning reflects a broader trend: increased hedging activity among sophisticated participants after the recent rally. While not a definitive bearish signal, it indicates that some large players are preparing for volatility rather than continued linear upside.

Range Structure: $38.7–$45.7 Defines Market Equilibrium

From a price structure perspective, HYPE has remained in a defined consolidation range between approximately $38.7 and $45.77 over the past month.

Current price action near $39–$40 places the asset directly on the lower boundary of this range, a level repeatedly defended in prior sessions. This makes the zone technically significant for near-term direction.

HYPEUSDT is testing key $39 support within a $38.7–$45.77 range, with a breakdown risking $36–$37 and a hold opening a rebound toward $44–$45. Source: coinpediamarkets on TradingView

Key technical thresholds:

• Support zone: $39.50–$40
• Hard floor: $38.73
• Breakdown risk: sustained close below $39 opens path toward $36–$37
• Upside reclaim: break above $41.50 reopens $44–$45.77 range highs

Momentum has shifted lower since the rejection near $44.50, forming a sequence of lower highs. However, analysts note that repeated tests of support can also signal accumulation if selling pressure weakens.

Liquidity Cycles and High-Beta Crypto Valuation

Broader market conditions remain a critical backdrop for assets like HYPE, which behave as high-beta expressions of crypto liquidity cycles.

In periods of expanding liquidity and strong risk appetite, capital tends to flow into high-growth, fee-generating platforms and derivatives-heavy ecosystems. Conversely, when liquidity tightens or sentiment overheats, these same assets often experience sharper corrective phases due to elevated leverage and rapid profit realization.

HYPE’s current structure reflects this duality: strong ecosystem-driven demand on one hand and technically overextended conditions on the other. The presence of ETF-linked inflows and buyback mechanisms strengthens structural support but does not eliminate cyclical volatility.

Looking Ahead: Consolidation or Breakdown at $39

The $39 level now functions as a short-term decision point.

• Holding this zone could sustain a range-bound structure and allow a rebound toward $43–$45.
• A confirmed breakdown below $38.70 would shift momentum toward a deeper correction into the mid-$30s.

HYPE was trading at around $41.65, down 9.09% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Brave New Coin 

For now, the market is in equilibrium between strong fundamental inflows and technical exhaustion signals. The next decisive move is likely to be driven by whether buyers defend the current support cluster or allow momentum sellers to extend control.