Lithium Market Outlook as $90,650 Spot Meets a Heavy ETF Resistance Wall in Q4

The Global X Lithium and Battery Tech ETF, on the other hand, dropped 2.64% to $59.46.

This divergence indicates that there is not yet a noticeable improvement in the recovery of lithium-related stocks based on the lithium price on the physical market. The market is currently testing the latest rebound, and if the market can form a sustainable recovery, it will be dependent on technical support and overhead resistance levels.

Lithium carbonate rebounds as futures regain momentum

Lithium carbonate, which is used in battery manufacturing, was sold for battery-grade use in China at 90,650 yuan per tonne, according to Carl Capolingua in his November 12 update on X. The spot benchmark rose by 0.2%, and GFEX futures rose 2.2% to about 90,900 yuan. Prices for spodumene concentrate were $1,170 per tonne for the SMM concentrate index in the meantime. Spot concentrate for Australia was $1,225 per tonne, and lithium hydroxide was 81,550 yuan per tonne.

The price of lithium has gradually begun to stabilize following the selling pressure it has experienced in recent times, the figures suggest. But the overall momentum is not as strong as the daily gains indicate. The prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased 3.2 percent in the week ending Nov. 12, according to SMM. Its average price fell 2,950 yuan from its price level on Friday before rising 200 yuan on Thursday.

The chart that Capolingua shared gives a longer-term perspective of this weakness. Lithium carbonate rose from around 83,100 yuan per tonne at the end of 2025 and began to rally rapidly in early 2026. Source: Capolingua Via X

Finally, it hit 210,580 yuan per tonne in May. But the sellers took the reins following this top and established a price structure in a corrective manner.

The chart identifies several overhead resistance areas, including 172,700–179,440 and 157,200–157,840 yuan. Additional technical reference points are the lower zones at 136,260 yuan and 124,020 yuan. The levels indicate the gradual surrendering of previous price gains in the market. So the continuing decline will require further consolidation before the trend is considered reversed.

Lithium ETF tests support as overhead liquidity builds

In the meantime, the data on TradingView does not reflect the trading of lithium carbonate but rather the trading of the Global X Lithium and Battery Tech ETF. The fund closed at $59.46 on November 12, losing $1.61 or 2.64%. It opened at $59.63, reached an intraday high of $60.05, and touched a low of $59.44. Hence, the closing price was not much higher than the session low, indicating selling pressure.

The daily chart shows a clear bearish structure from the prior trading range. The ETF was trading near $85 in June but has dipped towards $67 in July. Source: TradingView

But this rally was not enough to create lasting upward momentum until buyers took it up to $77 in late August. Selling picked up in September and October, and the ETF has now reached its current price of $59.46.

The liquidity heatmap shows that there is an immediate support area between about $57.50 and $58.50. This area is the closest visible liquidity accumulation to the current price. If the defense is successful, a short-term bottom may be set for the ETF. But if the price drops further below $57.50, it would reveal lower price levels and hinder the recovery process.

Overhead liquidity is concentrated in the $60 to $65 range. Several possible resistance zones are seen extending towards 67-75. The price structure of the ETF looks good on the 62.50 level and above, so it would be good to see this move back towards 65 and above. The push higher from here would give more support to bulls reclaiming control.

Most importantly, these concentration areas of liquidity are not a guarantee of reversals or breakouts. They represent potential markets that can affect price action. Traders should keep an eye out for any potential changes in the ETF’s performance as it nears these levels.