The DASH market cycle — more alt gains ahead?

Bitcoin is back with a new all-time high, breaking out to $52,200. While Bitcoin is in price discovery, riding a huge wave of bullish momentum, altcoins are in a bull market too. In fact DASH is up an impressive 87% across the last seven days, even while Bitcoin hit new all-time highs.

Altcoin Correlations

In January several major altcoins were mimicking and following Ethereum’s price trajectory. The first example was Litecoin:

Ethereum had broken out from a macro double bottom formation and successfully retested it (yellow circle) before continuing higher. And while Litecoin was also forming a macro double bottom formation, LTC was lagging behind in this respect.

However in the several weeks since, Litecoin has continued to perfectly copy Ethereum’s price action:

Another example of a major altcoin demonstrating similar price action is Bitcoin Cash:

Although the price action is not as close as the above Litecoin example, Bitcoin Cash was also mimicking Ethereum’s price action and forming a macro Double Bottom formation. And in the last two weeks, BCH has also just broken out from this pattern:

And there’s another altcoin that was mimicking this double bottom formation back in January. DASH.

And in the several weeks since, DASH has also validated its double bottom:

So some large caps are closely following Ethereum, so much so that their market structures are identical, just at different phases in their own respective cycles.

DASH’s double bottom isn’t perfect if we compare it to the double bottom that LTC is forming with respect to ETH.

The reason is that some altcoins are just painted differently, like DASH/USD. And though DASH won’t completely copy Ethereum’s market structure, it will still follow Ethereum, just in its own way; the only way it knows how. And that is via its own historical cyclicality…

The DASH/USD Market Cycle

In late November 2020, I shared a tweet describing DASH’s historical price cyclicality:

DASH tends to form parabolic accumulation ranges whereby price declines, bottoms, and then finally reverses in a U-Shaped trend reversal, forming a U-shaped parabola support.

Dogecoin is very similar in that respect and I’ll explain the reason why this matters in the context of DASH’s price action:

In November, the DOGE/USD pair was forming its own parabola support, much like DASH/USD was. And the reason that DOGE matters is that Dogecoin also has a historical cyclicality, both on its USD pair and its BTC pair:

Of course, since the above tweet Dogecoin kickstarted a new +1150% DOGE cycle:

And the reason this matters in the context of DASH and other altcoins is because Dogecoin cycles have historically confirmed increases in the entire altcoin market cap:

And much like Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, or DASH — the Altcoin Market Cap chart alone is also following Ethereum.

Here’s the ETH/USD price chart:

And here’s the Altcoin Market Cap chart:

The altcoin market cap is almost identical to Ethereum’s price chart. It is lagging behind ETH’s movements, much like LTC, BCH, or DASH.

So if Dogecoin cycles confirm increases in the altcoin market cap (which is lagging behind ETH/USD’s price movement) then this must also mean that DOGE also kickstarts Money Flow into other altcoins:

The fact that large caps are rallying e.g. BCH, LTC, XMR, DASH and ETH is bullish.

The more large caps that get involved in these new -up trends means that more profits will be accumulated across them.

Which in turns means that once the time comes for investor profit circulation into the lower tiers of the Money Flow cycle to take place, this money flow will arguably have a more compounded effect compared to when just ETH is leading the market, greatly fuelling the next phase of smaller altcoin rallies.

Overall, the crypto market looks poised to continue climbing from this point; not only Bitcoin rallying further into price discovery, but altcoins in general as well. Ever since Bitcoin broke out past its old All-Time High of $20,000, other altcoins have been benefiting from investor Money Flow, as per the Crypto Money Flow principles.

And as Ethereum (i.e. a Large Cap) climbed alongside Bitcoin, once the Dogecoin cycle began — it further confirmed Money Flow into other Large Cap Altcoins and even Mid- and Small-Cap Altcoins as well.

So the fact that the historical cyclicality in the price action of DOGE/USD shares some similarity with the historical cyclicality in DASH/USD is no coincidence:

DASH is now in the process of breaking out from its historical almost 800-day parabolic accumulation range.

Let’s take a look at the non-logarithmic price chart to appreciate how pivotal a moment in DASH’s price history this breakout really is:

The previous 2014–2016 parabola accumulation range isn’t even visible on the normal view but preceded new All-Time Highs for DASH/USD.

DASH is now breaking out from its 2018–2021 parabola accumulation range…

DASH Tokenomics

The technicals underpinning DASH’s price action forecast a bright future for DASH’s newly formed uptrend. But the tokenomics and on-chain metrics for DASH lend further confluence to the emerging price trend.

For instance, the fact that around 48% of DASH’s circulating supply is allocated to masternodes means that there is less available supply on exchanges, which has no small impact on the overall scarcity of DASH:

But it’s not just the locked-in circulating supply that has an impact on the price action of DASH. Inevitably, more user adoption will also inspire price increases through sheer demand and active usage.

DASH wallets installed on active devices has seen an almost three-fold acceleration since Q3, 2019 lately reaching over 142000 mobile wallets installed on active devices:

To add to that, over 24000 economic transactions have taken place since 2015, marking a 10th consecutive quarter of growth for DASH usage:

These figures will likely continue to climb, especially given the recent CrayPay partnership that will enable Dash to be spent at over 8x more places than Bitcoin.

In alignment with DASH’s technical price predicament, the CrayPay partnership has arguably acted as a strong fundamental catalyst to fuel the breakout and the emerging new trend in DASH’s price action.

Closing Thoughts

The last time Altcoin Market Cap broke its old All-Time High in December 2016 (green circle), Altcoin Market Cap increased +27,000% by December 2017 (second red circle):

The Altcoin Market Cap recently broke its 2017 highs:

Altcoins are in the early stages of a macro altcoin bull market. And DASH is no exception.

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