When Moon? Some experts think soon

The ‘when moon?’ meme has long been popular on "Crypto Twitter" and other social media platforms where cryptocurrency enthusiasts discuss crypto. The term comes from the saying "bitcoin will go to the moon," which is a reference to bitcoin’s potential to substantially increase in value over time.

While BTC has lost over 70 percent of its value the 2018 bear market, several analysts and experts agree that the supposed bitcoin bubble has not popped and we will likely see substantial gains towards the end of this year – and new all-time highs in the years to come.

The latest digital asset experts to share these views include BitMEX’s CEO Arthur Hayes, Fundstrat’s Head of Research Tom Lee, and ThinkMarkets’s Chief Market Analyst Naeem Aslam.

BitMEX CEO says $10,000 before year-end

In a recent BitMEX newsletter, CEO Arthur Hayes wrote that he believes that the price of bitcoin will hit the psychologically important $10,000 towards the end of 2019.

"The repair of crypto investors balance sheets is not done yet. Losses must be digested, and the unlucky masses must wage cuck a bit longer to get back in the game. All is not lost; nothing goes up or down in a straight line. 2019 will be boring, but green shoots will appear towards year-end," Hayes stated.

Hayes bases his price prediction primarily on "free money" from the Fed entering the markets as the central bank plans to hold off rate hikes this year due to an expected weaker U.S. economy. This should spur investment in risky assets, with tech stocks first and crypto next.

"The 2019 chop will be intense, but the markets will claw back to $10,000. That is a very significant psychological barrier. It’s a nice round sexy number," he concluded.

Tom Lee expects a rally in the summer

Fundstrat Global Advisors’ co-founder and Head of Research, Thomas Lee, who has become known in the bitcoin community for his BTC price predictions, is more optimistic about the timing of the next bitcoin rally, which he attributes to the favorable macroeconomic trends.

"We have a risk-on rally in global markets that’s positive for bitcoin; it was a headwind last year. And the dollar isn’t surging like it was last year. That’s a headwind that’s gone away," Lee told CNBC’s Futures Now.

He believes that bitcoin will start to rally again in August 2019, when the price of bitcoin will "cross above its 200-day [moving average]" if it manages to retain its $4,000 price tag.

"I think the outside window is five or six months before bitcoin starts to look technically like it’s back in a bull market," he concluded.

In a tweet detailing his logic behind his latest price bitcoin prediction, Lee states that he sees the price of bitcoin trading $10,000 to $20,000 if it catches up to equities.

ThinkMarkets lead strategist predicts $400,000 moon

In a report published by online brokerage ThinkMarkets, chief market analyst Neem Aslam writes: " […] There is a high chance that the next bull run has a minimum potential of pushing the price 5 times higher. That is over $100K. I personally believe that each Bitcoin can go up as much as $400K and if history repeats itself, this number is not a fool’s paradise."

Aslam bases his ambitious bitcoin price prediction on technicals. He highlights that the recent bitcoin price crash during the "crypto winter" was the smallest of the three big corrections, which occurred in 2011 (93 percent), 2013 (84 percent), and 2018 (73 percent) respectively.

Moreover, bitcoin has broken its longest streak of monthly loses in Q1/2019, which suggests that the crypto winter is finally over, and if the price of bitcoin passes through the 50-week moving average (MA) – and everything points in that direction – then the bulls should have finally beaten the bears for bitcoin to surge again in 2019.

What will trigger the rally?

In a feature in November 2018, BNC analysts suggested that there are three potential triggers for the next bitcoin bull market: the rollout of a security token ecosystem, the launch of Bakkt, and the SEC approving a BItcoin ETF. However, none of these three triggers have occurred yet.

While there are several notable companies, including Polymath and Overstock’s tZero, that are actively working towards building a stable, secure and regulated ecosystem for security tokens, we are yet to see the much-awaiting boom in the STO market.

Furthermore, Bakkt has not launched yet despite setting its goal to do so for early 2019. The new ICE-backed cryptoasset venture is still in talks with the financial regulator to ensure that its platform meets all requirements as a secure, regulated investment services provider.

Finally, it looks like we are still far away from seeing the first publicly-traded Bitcoin ETF on US soil. Currently, it is unlikely that a Bitcoin ETF will be approved as the bitcoin spot market is still too unregulated and does not have enough trade surveillance in place for the regulator’s taste.

Nonetheless, we have been in a stabilization period in the past few weeks, where the price of bitcoin has managed to remain firm around the $4,000 mark, and the general consensus among crypto investors is that the next move will be up. Wall Street’s embrace of crypto, with the likes of Fidelity Digital Assets launching and already onboarding clients, is the most cited reason when talking to blockchain investors.

The market sentiment is definitely positive at the moment and even the search term ‘buy bitcoin’ is back on the rise on Google, which would suggest that retail investors are also coming back.

However, we also need to be aware of the elephants that remain in the room such as the Mt.Gox trustee, who reportedly still holds 141,000 BTC and 142,000 BCH, which could be returned to their rightful owners five years after the exchange’s collapse. If the majority of these coins are sold, the market will not react kindly as 141,000 BTC equates to 0.8 percent of bitcoin’s current circulating supply.

Additionally, and, perhaps more alarming, is the recent report by Bitwise Asset Management, which suggests that 95 percent of bitcoin trading volumes are fake and that the real size of the cryptoasset market is grossly overstated. If that is correct, this could act as a deterrent for Wall Street to enter the market as liquidity is a key factor for institutional investors looking to enter a new asset class, especially one as risky as bitcoin.