XAG/USD Price Analysis Shows Recovery Facing $68 Resistance
After falling to July lows, XAGUSD is currently trading in the mid-$60 range. Notably, all three charts are of different instruments and time frames.
Silver: 1 year of data from Trading Economics; silver futures charting on Investing.com is done on a 15-minute basis, and the 1-minute chart of the Binance XAG/USDT perpetual contract on TradingView.
Notably, differences are a result of contractual terms, venue, and time. The charts together display a notable year-on-year improvement, a quick turnaround in futures, and weak short-term support.
Silver Shows the Broader Recovery.
Silver’s Trading Economics chart shows a $66.152 price, which is $25.422 higher in 1 year. It has an annual gain of 62.42%. The price level started around $40 and rose gradually throughout the period, culminating in a December high of 40.39. But then the momentum turned, and it had a big rally around $116 in late January.
Silver rapidly resumed its trend toward $80 and went through a significant range of prices in February and March. Source: TradingEconomics
The market then formed lower highs before making its way into the $56-$58 zone in July. Price has recovered back towards $68-$69 in August but has backed off to $66.152. This will leave the rebound in place and indicate some resistance below $70.
The immediate support level is at $64-$65. A break there would be $6-$62, followed by the July base around $56-$58.
The good news is that the first barrier is at $68-$70. If it moves higher, it will be targeting $74-$76. No additional gains would be made to the yearly chart until silver broke above the low highs created during May and June.
Futures Record a Sharp Rejection
Silver futures fell $3.176, or 4.57%, on the day to $67.790 on the Investing.com chart. Futures advanced from below $69 to $71, but buyers took a turn for the worse. The price then broke down through the $69 and $68 levels, down to the low $66 area.
The rebound to the top of the range took some of the losses off the $67.79. However, it failed to counter the previous failure.
Futures will need to recover $68 before they will need to recover the $68.80-$69.00 range to remove the immediate selling momentum. Source: Investing.com
The buyers came in late in the chart between $66.00 and $66.30; that’s the area where support is found. A break below $66 may push the downside trend to $65. The overall banding table allows for a mixed interpretation. Over the last month, silver’s price has increased by 13.52%, whereas in the past three months, it has declined by 11.70%.
Investing.com shows a 68.74% year-on-year increase, and Trading Economics has an increase of 62.42% year-over-year. The mismatch is due to contract and timing differences.
Technicals Show Weak Intraday Money Flow
The TradingView chart is for XAG/USDT perpetual futures, NOT spot XAGUSD. After a big move up and down today, it is trading around $67.01. The price broke out of its previous range after 14:00 UTC but couldn’t maintain the momentum in the upward direction.
The contract settled in the mid-$66.95 to $67.10 range. It has a Chaikin Money Flow reading of minus 0.08. The down figure is a sign of moderate selling pressure despite the late consolidation. Source: TradingView
The Bollinger strategy also generated a recent sell signal in the vicinity of the price. However, one-minute charts can change rapidly and should not be relied on over longer charts. The immediate support is found close to $66.90, and the immediate resistance is close to $67.15. Barriers are seen near the midday peaks.
XAGUSD Levels Define the Next Direction
The overall structure is neither bullish nor bearish until it falls below $68-$70. Retaining $64-$65 will maintain the August recovery pattern on the annual time frame. Should the break clear above $70, the trend should be viewed as positive toward $74-$76. If it breaks above $70, it should be considered bullish toward $74-$76.
Any failure below $64 would allow that pullback to become a failure and leave $60-$62 uncovered. A futures break below $66 would indicate further short-term downside pressure, meanwhile. The highest price for futures to signal a bull market and the highest price for the overall silver quotation would be $69 and $70, respectively.
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