XRP Price Prediction: 13-Month Cycle Signals Potential Bottom as Weekly EMA Points to Rally Beyond $1.54

Several analysts are now watching whether the XRP price can establish a sustainable base above its recent lows, while longer-term cycle analysis points to the possibility of a broader recovery.

At the center of the bullish case is a 13-month cycle identified by TradingView analyst Fractical. The analysis suggests XRP’s latest bearish swing low occurred close to the latest cycle marker, potentially completing the bottoming phase of the pattern. If the cycle continues to follow its previous rhythm, the analyst expects a five-wave advance that could develop over roughly the next 13 months.

That view remains technical rather than fundamental. The price still faces important resistance near $1.40, while shorter-term momentum indicators show that buyers have yet to establish decisive control.

XRP Price Tests a Key Technical Zone

The XRP price. has been trading near $1.35-$1.36 in early September after retreating from a recent recovery high around $1.70. The pullback has brought the price back toward a region where several short- and medium-term technical levels converge.

XRP is at a key decision point as its 4H chart forms a tightening symmetrical triangle, with $1.40 marking the critical breakout level. Source: @TheMoonHailey via X

A recent analysis from @TheMoonHailey identified a symmetrical triangle on XRP’s four-hour chart. The analyst described $1.40 as the key breakout level, with a move above it potentially opening the way toward $1.45 and then $1.55.

Conversely, a failure to hold the lower portion of the formation could expose XRP to levels around $1.34 and $1.28.

The setup is important because XRP is trading close to the triangle’s apex, where narrowing price action can precede a larger directional move. However, a compressed range by itself does not determine which direction the eventual breakout will take.

Recent market action also shows why $1.40 remains significant. The price has repeatedly struggled to sustain advances through that area, keeping the immediate XRP price prediction dependent on whether buyers can convert resistance into support.

13-Month Cycle Points to a Potential Bottom

Longer-term cycle analysis provides a more constructive interpretation of the current consolidation.

TradingView analyst Fractical recently published a chart built around an approximately 13-month cycle in XRP. The analyst said the chart had originally been prepared in February but was published only after the latest market move developed.

The analyst expects XRP’s latest bearish swing low to mark a cycle bottom, with a five-wave impulsive rally potentially unfolding over the next 13 months. Source: Fractical on TradingView

According to the analysis, major highs and lows have historically occurred close to the cycle markers, often just before or slightly after them. The latest bearish swing low also ended shortly before the most recent marker.

Fractical, therefore, considers the bottoming structure complete and is looking for a five-wave impulsive advance during the new cycle.

The analyst’s thesis is effectively that the price has moved through a corrective phase and could now begin a larger upward sequence. Under that interpretation, the next major advance would not necessarily occur in a straight line. Instead, it could develop through successive impulse and corrective waves over an extended period.

Such cycle-based analysis should be treated cautiously. Historical timing relationships can provide context, but they do not guarantee that future market turning points will occur on schedule. The proposed Elliott Wave structure can also change as new price data emerges.

Weekly EMA Sets $1.54 XRP Price Target

Shorter-term moving averages currently provide a more immediate test for the bullish thesis.

ChartNerdTA recently highlighted a four-hour death cross followed by a bearish retest, putting pressure on XRP’s near-term structure. The analyst identified the $1.31-$1.32 area around the daily 20 EMA as an important support zone.

XRP bulls retain a short-term advantage as long as the daily 20 EMA at $1.31 holds, with a resistance breakout potentially opening a retest of the $1.54 50-week EMA. Source: @ChartNerdTA via X

If that support remains intact and the price succeeds in reclaiming nearby resistance, attention could shift toward the 50-week EMA around $1.54.

The XRP price forecast 2026 therefore has a clearly defined technical path: maintaining support near the low $1.30s would preserve the possibility of a move toward the $1.54 weekly EMA, while a deeper breakdown would weaken the recovery setup.

The $1.54 level is particularly relevant because it represents a higher-timeframe moving-average barrier rather than simply an arbitrary price target. A sustained move above it would provide stronger evidence that the longer-term trend is improving.

Bearish Structure Still Threatens XRP

The bullish cycle thesis faces a near-term technical challenge from a separate four-hour analysis on TradingView.

The analyst identified a bearish break of structure at $1.3352 after the price broke its previous swing low. The subsequent recovery toward $1.3758 was described as a potential retest of the broken structure rather than confirmation of a new uptrend.

XRP just printed a bearish BoS six bars back on the 4H, cracking the last swing low at 1.3352 and flipping that level from support to overhead reference. Source: TradingView

The analysis places the EMA21 near $1.3655 and EMA55 around $1.3697. A sustained four-hour close above the EMA55, followed by a move through $1.3810, would improve the short-term structure.

From there, the analyst’s levels are $1.4045 and $1.4335, with the latter representing the previous swing high.

On the downside, losing $1.3655 would increase the risk of another move toward the lower part of the range around $1.3265. A four-hour close below that level would invalidate the recovery setup outlined in the analysis.

This creates a relatively clear technical framework for the XRP current price. Buyers need to regain the moving-average cluster and then challenge $1.40, while sellers retain control if the price repeatedly fails beneath those levels.

Binance XRP Reserves Hit 2024 Levels

On-chain data provides another factor that traders are monitoring.

CryptoQuant data shows that Binance’s average XRP reserves have fallen substantially since late 2025. The 30-day average reportedly declined from approximately 3.17 billion XRP in November 2025 to about 2.61 billion by September 1, 2026. That represents a reduction of roughly 551 million XRP, or 17.4%, according to data cited by Finbold.

Around 500 million XRP have left Binance, a relatively positive long-term signal that is unlikely to have a direct short-term impact on price. Source: CryptoQuant via X

The latest level is reportedly the lowest monthly average since February 2024. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost described the development as a “relatively positive signal for XRP,” while emphasizing that its relevance is more long-term than an immediate price catalyst.

Falling exchange reserves can sometimes indicate that investors are moving tokens into private or long-term storage. However, reserve data alone cannot establish the reason for every withdrawal. Transfers between wallets, custody arrangements, and other operational movements can also affect exchange balances.

As a result, the decline should be viewed as a supporting on-chain indicator rather than direct evidence that a major XRP rally is imminent.

What the XRP Price Prediction Depends On

The current XRP price prediction ultimately comes down to whether the token can turn its recent consolidation into a confirmed breakout.

The first hurdle is the $1.36-$1.40 region. Reclaiming the short-term EMA cluster and establishing support above $1.40 would strengthen the bullish structure. The next technical areas would then come into view around $1.45 and $1.54-$1.55.

XRP price chart. Source: Brave New Coin

A move above $1.54 would be more significant because it would take XRP beyond the 50-week EMA highlighted by ChartNerdTA and into a higher-timeframe resistance area.

The alternative scenario remains straightforward. Failure to regain $1.36-$1.40 could leave XRP vulnerable to another test of $1.34, followed by the $1.32 area. A decisive break below approximately $1.28 would further weaken the argument that the latest decline represented the completion of a larger bottom.

For now, the 13-month cycle offers a bullish long-term interpretation, while the shorter-term chart continues to demand confirmation. XRP’s ability to reclaim $1.40 will therefore be important in determining whether the current consolidation becomes the foundation for a broader advance or another failed recovery attempt.