XRP Price Prediction: 50-Week EMA Rejection Puts $1.30 Support in Focus

Chart analyst ChartNerdTA has flagged the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently around $1.54, as an important level for determining whether the recent recovery can extend or whether XRP price faces a deeper retracement.

The caution comes after XRP climbed from below $1 earlier this month to briefly reach around $1.70. The move pushed the price sharply higher in a matter of days, but the subsequent rejection from the 50-week EMA has shifted attention toward nearby support levels.

XRP Price Faces Resistance at 50-Week EMA

ChartNerdTA said XRP’s weekly close below the 50-week EMA should be treated as a “major caution signal” for the weeks ahead. The analyst stressed that the setup does not confirm that the broader trend has ended but warned that XRP remains vulnerable while it fails to reclaim the indicator.

XRP’s weekly close below the 50-week EMA near $1.54 signals potential continued weakness in the coming weeks. Source: @ChartNerdTA via X

In a follow-up post, ChartNerdTA identified the 50-week EMA near $1.54 as the level that would invalidate the bearish setup if the price moves back above it.

The level is significant because the 50-week EMA often acts as a longer-term trend reference. The price had previously moved above its 20-week EMA near $1.23 during the recent recovery, but the stronger 50-week barrier has so far proved more difficult to overcome.

The rejection also comes after XRP’s roughly 49% weekly advance. The token reached about $1.70 before retreating, making the $1.54 region an important test for buyers attempting to preserve the recovery.

$1.30 Support Emerges as Key XRP Price Level

With the 50-week EMA acting as resistance, ChartNerdTA’s chart places the $1.30-$1.29 region among the first major mid-term support zones.

A sustained decline below this area could bring lower levels into focus, including the $1.18-$1.10 range. The chart also identifies $1.00-$0.98 as a deeper support area if selling pressure intensifies.

XRP price chart. Source: Brave New Coin

These levels should be viewed as technical reference points rather than fixed price targets. Their importance will depend on how XRP behaves around each zone and whether buyers return with enough volume to stabilize the market.

The $1.30 area also sits close to XRP’s current cluster of moving averages. TradingView data for the Bitstamp XRPUSD pair showed the 10-day EMA near $1.33 and the 10-day SMA around $1.31, while the 200-day EMA was near $1.35. This creates a relatively tight area of short- and medium-term technical support around the current market.

XRP Ledger Activity Surges 655%

Price action is not the only area attracting attention. On-chain activity across the XRP Ledger has increased sharply during the latest rally.

XRP active addresses surged 654.71% to 356,070, signaling a sharp rise in network participation and potentially higher price volatility. Source: Ali Martinez via X

Santiment data cited by market analysts showed active addresses rising from 47,180 on August 10 to 356,070 on August 24. That represents a 654.71% increase in two weeks and adds evidence of a significant rise in network participation.

The surge coincided with XRP’s broader recovery from below $1 and its move toward $1.70. A sharp increase in active addresses does not by itself establish the direction of future prices, but it indicates that considerably more addresses were participating in transactions on the network during the rally.

The timing is notable because the recent price advance has occurred alongside increased market activity across both spot and derivatives markets.

Binance Leverage Reaches Seven-Month High

Derivatives data provides another important part of the XRP price picture.

CryptoQuant data showed Binance’s estimated leverage ratio for XRP rising to approximately 0.213, its highest level in more than seven months. The metric compares futures open interest with XRP reserves held on the exchange and is used to gauge how much leveraged exposure is building in the market.

Binance XRP Leverage Ratio Hits Highest Level Over 7 Months. Source: @cryptoquant_com via X

Higher leverage can accompany stronger trader conviction when it rises alongside price and open interest. CryptoQuant commentary noted that such a combination can indicate increased confidence and the opening of new positions, potentially supporting the continuation of an existing trend.

However, leverage also increases liquidation risk. A sudden move against heavily positioned traders can force positions to close, adding further pressure to an already declining market.

Recent data highlighted by CoinDesk showed XRP futures volume at roughly $6.4 billion over 24 hours, more than five times spot trading volume, while open interest stood near $3.45 billion. The same report noted that long positions outnumbered shorts on major exchanges.

That positioning makes the $1.54 resistance and $1.30 support levels particularly relevant. A breakout could force short positions to adjust, while a deeper decline could expose highly leveraged long positions to liquidations.

XRP Technical Indicators Turn Mixed

The latest technical readings present a mixed picture rather than a clear bearish reversal.

XRP was recently quoted at around $1.36 on Bitstamp, down roughly 4.85% on the session in the supplied TradingView data. The aggregate rating remained neutral, although moving averages continued to lean bullish, with 13 buy signals compared with one sell and one neutral reading.

Momentum indicators were less decisive. The 14-period RSI stood around 65, suggesting that momentum had cooled from the more extreme levels reached during the rally. The MACD remained positive and carried a buy signal, while the 10-period momentum indicator generated a sell signal.

The Hull Moving Average near $1.50 represented another overhead reference. That level sits close to the 50-week EMA, reinforcing the broader resistance zone above the current price.

This combination suggests that the recent pullback has not erased all of XRP’s positive technical structure. However, buyers still need to reclaim higher resistance levels before the recovery can be considered technically stronger.

XRP Price Prediction: What Comes Next?

The immediate XRP price prediction depends heavily on whether buyers can reclaim the 50-week EMA.

A decisive move back above $1.54 would weaken the current bearish technical setup identified by ChartNerdTA and place the recent rejection in a different context. It would also restore the price above one of its most closely watched weekly trend indicators.

Conversely, continued rejection below the 50-week EMA would leave the $1.30-$1.29 region as the first major support area to monitor. A break below that zone could shift attention toward $1.18-$1.10, while a substantially deeper correction could bring the $1.00-$0.98 region back into focus.

The broader technical picture therefore remains conditional. XRP is still trading above several shorter-term moving averages, and network activity has expanded considerably. At the same time, the rejection from the 50-week EMA, mixed momentum readings and elevated derivatives leverage show that the market has entered a more sensitive phase.

For the current XRP price forecast, the $1.54 resistance and $1.30 support levels provide two of the clearest technical markers. Holding the latter would help preserve the recent recovery structure, while reclaiming the former would provide stronger evidence that buyers are regaining control.