XRP Price Prediction: Is the 2,500-Day Breakout a Bull Trap? Analysts Warn $1.13 Support Faces Critical Test

While recent institutional demand through XRP-focused exchange-traded funds has strengthened investor confidence, technical analysts are increasingly focused on whether XRP can maintain key support levels. A growing debate has emerged around the token’s long-term breakout above a multi-year descending trendline, with some suggesting the move could lose credibility if critical support zones fail.

XRP’s Historic Breakout Faces a New Challenge

The latest discussion surrounding XRP price prediction centers on a major technical event that many traders viewed as the start of a new bullish cycle.

After peaking in 2018, XRP spent more than 2,500 days trading beneath a long-term descending resistance trendline. The eventual breakout above that structure was widely interpreted as confirmation that the asset had entered a new phase of market expansion.

Following its 2018 peak, XRP spent more than 2,500 days consolidating below a major descending trendline before eventually breaking above the long-term resistance. Source: INNERVECTOR on TradingView

Historical precedent supports that view. Between 2014 and 2017, XRP remained below a major downtrend line for over 1,000 days before eventually breaking higher and delivering one of the strongest rallies in its history.

However, some analysts argue that the recent breakout should not be viewed in isolation.

They note that the move occurred while XRP continued to rely on a long-term ascending support line stretching back to the 2017 market cycle. In their view, maintaining that support is just as important as the breakout itself.

“If it fails, the entire bullish narrative could change,” one market commentator noted while analyzing XRP’s long-term structure.

The concern is not necessarily about an immediate collapse but rather the possibility of XRP re-entering an extended consolidation period if the breakout loses momentum.

Why the $1.13 Level Matters

Short-term charts reveal a developing battle around the $1.13 area.

According to recent market analysis, XRP’s four-hour accumulation trend is showing signs of weakening. Traders are watching closely to determine whether the current structure can remain intact or if price action will begin closing decisively below the trendline.

XRP is holding key support at $1.13. A move above $1.15 could open the door for a retest of the $1.17 resistance level. Source: StudyGuideTA on TradingView

The analyst behind the chart identified $1.13 as the primary support level currently holding the market together.

“The only support holding price here now is $1.13,” the analyst wrote, describing the zone as a key point of polarity where previous resistance has turned into support.

A sustained hold above this level could allow XRP to attempt another move toward $1.15 and potentially revisit the $1.17 region. Conversely, a break below support may expose lower demand zones and strengthen bearish momentum.

While some market participants have discussed the possibility of a deeper retracement toward $0.95, the analyst acknowledged that such projections have remained unrealized for months despite repeated expectations.

XRP ETF Inflows Highlight Institutional Interest

Despite mixed technical signals, institutional demand for XRP products continues to attract attention.

According to data shared by BankXRP, XRP-focused ETFs recorded approximately $10.66 million in net inflows during the most recent reporting period.

XRP ETF inflows remained positive last week at $10.66M, led by Franklin’s XRPZ with $6.69M and Bitwise with $3.97M, bringing cumulative assets to $406M and $476M, respectively. Source: @BankXRP via X

Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ product accounted for roughly $6.69 million of those inflows, while Bitwise contributed another $3.97 million.

The figures stand out because they arrived during a period when Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products reportedly experienced combined outflows exceeding $236 million.

BankXRP also highlighted Bitwise’s strong consistency since launch. The firm’s XRP ETF reportedly recorded net inflows on 149 out of 151 trading days since November 2025, representing a success rate of approximately 98.7%.

The trend suggests that institutional investors continue accumulating exposure to Ripple XRP despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding broader cryptocurrency market conditions.

Technical Indicators Show a Mixed Picture

Recent TradingView data paints a cautious but not entirely bearish outlook for XRP price today.

At the time of analysis, XRP was trading around $1.14 after posting a daily gain of approximately 1.5%. However, the asset remained below several important moving averages, indicating that broader trend pressure has not fully disappeared.

TradingView’s overall technical summary carries a Neutral rating, though the underlying data leans slightly bearish.

The platform reported:

• 13 Sell signals
• 10 Neutral signals
• 3 Buy signals

Moving averages were particularly weak, generating 13 Sell signals compared with only one Buy signal. Oscillators, meanwhile, remained largely balanced.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 41.61, remaining below the neutral 50 mark and suggesting momentum remains subdued. Stochastic %K measured 24.26, while Williams %R came in at -74.26, both indicating that XRP is approaching oversold territory without yet confirming a reversal.

At the same time, some momentum indicators showed signs of stabilization. The MACD registered a Buy signal despite remaining negative at -0.03735, while the Momentum indicator also flashed bullish readings.

These signals suggest that although sellers still control the broader trend, downside momentum may be slowing.

Major Resistance Levels Remain Overhead

Moving averages continue to represent a significant challenge for bulls.

XRP currently trades below its 10-period EMA at 1.15464, 20-period EMA at 1.17889, and 50-period EMA at 1.25286. Longer-term averages remain even higher, with the 100-period EMA near 1.34975 and the 200-period EMA around 1.55724.

XRP was trading at around $1.14, down 0.13% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin 

These levels indicate that any sustained recovery would require XRP to reclaim multiple resistance zones before a broader bullish trend can be confirmed.

Pivot point analysis further identifies important levels to monitor:

• Resistance 1: 1.49891

• Resistance 2: 1.66692

• Resistance 3: 1.95212

• Support 1: 1.13371

• Support 2: 1.09652

• Support 3: 0.81132

For now, traders appear focused on whether XRP can establish support above the current trading range and build enough momentum to challenge overhead resistance.

XRP Price Prediction Hinges on Support Stability

The latest XRP news presents a market caught between encouraging institutional adoption and lingering technical uncertainty.

ETF inflows continue to demonstrate investor interest in XRP-related investment products, reinforcing the argument that long-term demand remains intact. At the same time, chart analysts are emphasizing the importance of preserving critical support levels before declaring the recent breakout a definitive success.

For many traders, the key question is no longer whether XRP managed to break above a multi-year downtrend. Instead, attention has shifted to whether the asset can defend the support structures that emerged after the breakout.

As long as the $1.13 zone remains intact, bullish recovery scenarios remain on the table. However, if that support gives way, the debate surrounding a potential bull trap could become increasingly difficult for the market to ignore.