XRP Price Prediction: XRP Enters Rare Oversold Zone Seen Only Four Times in 13 Years—Could a Major Rebound Be Next?

While the broader trend remains under pressure, a growing number of market watchers point to deeply oversold conditions that have only appeared a handful of times in XRP’s history.

The latest technical readings arrive as the XRP price today hovers near $1.12, well below many of its key moving averages. At the same time, analysts are debating whether the current setup represents another period of prolonged consolidation or the early stages of a recovery phase for the XRP crypto market.

Analyst Reaffirms Long-Term XRP Structure

Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto recently reiterated confidence in what he calls the “Blue Scenario” for XRP, describing it as the path most closely aligned with his long-term market outlook.

The “Blue” XRP scenario is presented as the most optimal path, fully aligned with prior analysis of market structure, liquidity dynamics, trajectory, and macro factors compared to alternative outcomes. Source: @egragcrypto via X

According to the analyst, the scenario remains consistent with previous assessments of market structure, liquidity behavior, price trajectory, and broader macroeconomic conditions. Rather than focusing on short-term volatility, the analysis emphasizes larger structural trends that could shape the next phase of XRP price prediction models.

The chart shared by EGRAG highlights several notable price levels, including approximately $0.7770, $1.1600, and $1.6500. These zones are viewed as important reference points as traders evaluate whether the recent correction has reached an exhaustion stage.

While the analyst maintains a constructive long-term outlook, he continues to stress that market structure matters more than precise forecasts, underscoring the importance of watching key support and resistance levels rather than relying solely on target prices.

XRP Falls Below Key 200-Week Moving Average

One of the most closely watched developments in recent weeks has been XRP’s drop below its 200-week simple moving average (200W SMA), a level that has historically played a significant role in long-term trend analysis.

XRP has fallen below the 200-week SMA, a historically significant level that, in previous cycles, led to extended consolidation phases before eventual recovery and reclaim. Source: RedBait on TradingView

Historical data shows that previous breaks below the 200W SMA were not repaired quickly. Following earlier breakdowns, XRP spent extended periods consolidating beneath the level before eventually reclaiming it. The most recent example began in 2022 and lasted roughly two years before a breakout emerged in late 2024.

This historical context has prompted analysts to focus less on the depth of the decline and more on the time required to rebuild market strength after such a technical setback.

Several volume-weighted average price (VWAP) levels have emerged as potential support zones. These include approximately $0.97 from the January 2023 low, $0.83 from the June 2022 low, and $0.69 from the March 2020 market bottom.

In addition, some technical analysts are monitoring a Fibonacci extension target near $0.77. While this level is not a certainty, it remains an area of interest because of its historical and psychological significance.

A successful reclaim of the 200-week SMA would likely be viewed as the first meaningful sign that the recent breakdown is losing momentum.

Rare Monthly RSI Signal Appears Again

One of the most discussed developments in recent XRP news today is the appearance of a rare long-term Relative Strength Index (RSI) signal.

According to market observers, XRP’s monthly RSI has entered a deeply oversold reset zone that has appeared only four times over the last 13 years. Previous occurrences were recorded before the 2017 market expansion, during the 2020 reset, throughout the 2022 bear market compression, and now again in 2026.

XRP has entered a rare long-term reset zone, with the monthly RSI reaching deeply oversold levels only four times in the past 13 years, historically preceding major market phases. Source: Cryptollica on TradingView

The significance of this indicator lies in its rarity. Historically, such conditions have appeared near periods of market exhaustion rather than during euphoric peaks.

Analysts note that the current reading does not automatically signal an immediate rally. Instead, it suggests that XRP may be entering a phase where long-term investors begin paying closer attention to market structure and support levels.

The broader thesis remains straightforward: if XRP maintains its larger support architecture and begins reclaiming higher resistance zones, recovery prospects could improve. Conversely, a failure to hold key support levels would weaken that outlook.

XRP Price Technical Analysis Shows Mixed Signals

The latest TradingView snapshot places the current XRP price at approximately $1.1218, representing a daily gain of around 2.65%.

Despite the positive session, the overall technical picture remains mixed.

TradingView’s composite summary currently shows 14 Sell signals, 7 Neutral signals, and 5 Buy signals, resulting in an overall Neutral rating. The divergence between momentum indicators and trend indicators continues to define the market environment.

XRP was trading at around $1.13, up 3.21% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin 

Several oscillators are beginning to show signs of exhaustion among sellers.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) sits at 25.42, firmly within oversold territory and generating a Buy signal. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI-20) stands at -137.62, while the Stochastic RSI Fast reads 9.04. Both indicators also signal oversold conditions. Momentum (10) remains negative at -0.19156 but contributes another Buy reading.

However, bearish pressure has not fully disappeared. The MACD (12,26) remains below zero at -0.07004, continuing to issue a Sell signal and indicating that broader momentum has yet to reverse.

Other indicators, including the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 34.85 and Williams %R at -77.08, remain largely neutral.

Collectively, these readings suggest the XRP price may be approaching a stabilization phase, though confirmation is still required.

Key XRP Price Levels to Watch

While oversold signals are attracting attention, moving averages continue to reflect a challenging technical backdrop.

XRP remains below virtually every major short- and long-term moving average. The 10-day EMA sits near $1.194, while the 10-day SMA stands around $1.218. Intermediate resistance levels include the 20-day EMA near $1.257 and the 50-day SMA around $1.362.

Longer-term indicators remain even higher. The 200-day EMA is positioned near $1.622, while the 200-day SMA sits around $1.610.

The lone bullish exception is the Hull Moving Average (9), which currently rests near $1.065 and remains below the market price.

Pivot-point analysis identifies support around the $1.10-$1.21 region. Additional support levels are located near $1.097 and $0.811. On the upside, resistance levels are found around $1.499, $1.667, and $1.952.

For a stronger recovery case to emerge, XRP would likely need to reclaim the cluster of moving averages between approximately $1.19 and $1.33 while improving momentum readings across key oscillators.

For now, XRP current price action reflects a market caught between deeply oversold conditions and a broader bearish trend. Whether this rare monthly RSI reset ultimately marks another major turning point will depend on XRP’s ability to defend support levels and gradually rebuild technical strength in the weeks ahead.