Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: IBIT Flashes Strong Sell as BTC Risks Drop to $61K Amid ETF Outflows

While some analysts see conditions becoming oversold enough for a relief rally, others warn that the broader downtrend remains intact and could drag the leading cryptocurrency toward lower support levels.

The latest weakness in the BTC price comes as investors pull funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs and rotate capital into other sectors of the market, raising questions about whether the current correction has further to run.

ETF Outflows and Sentiment Weigh on Bitcoin

Recent market data suggests that persistent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF products have become one of the primary headwinds for the market. According to trader and market analyst @icooperTrades, more than $1 billion in weekly ETF outflows has coincided with deteriorating sentiment and reduced appetite for risk assets.

Bitcoin’s two-day drop was fueled by ETF outflows and weak sentiment, though a short-term bounce from $65.6K remains possible. Source: @icooperTrades via X

The analyst also pointed to a relatively small sale of 32 BTC by Strategy, valued at approximately $2.5 million, as another factor contributing to market nervousness. Although the transaction represented a tiny fraction of the company’s holdings, it marked the firm’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022 and attracted significant attention among traders.

“ETF outflows, weaker sentiment, and capital seeking safer traditional finance returns have combined to pressure Bitcoin,” the trader noted.

At the same time, broader market conditions appear to be encouraging investors to allocate funds elsewhere. Some analysts argue that large-scale fundraising activity by major technology companies, including SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, has diverted liquidity away from digital assets and into equity markets.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis Today Shows Mixed Signals

Despite ongoing selling pressure, several momentum indicators suggest Bitcoin may be approaching oversold territory.

At the time of analysis, Bitcoin price today was trading near $67,000, according to TradingView data. The platform’s overall technical summary remains neutral, though underlying indicators reveal a bearish bias. Out of 26 tracked indicators, 15 generated sell signals, seven remained neutral, and only four flashed buy signals.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $67,119, down 4.11% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood near 23, well below the traditional oversold threshold of 30. Meanwhile, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) registered approximately -224, another reading often associated with exhausted selling activity.

Williams %R reached -87, while Momentum (10) remained deeply negative around -9,974. These figures suggest that bearish momentum may be stretched in the short term.

However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continued to issue a sell signal with a reading near -2,252, indicating that medium-term downward momentum remains intact despite oversold conditions.

Moving Averages Continue to Favor Bears

Although oscillators hint at the possibility of a short-term bounce, trend-following indicators paint a much different picture.

Nearly every major moving average tracked by TradingView currently signals a sell. Bitcoin is trading below its 10-day EMA near $71,817, 20-day EMA around $74,030, and 50-day moving averages clustered in the mid-$70,000 range.

Bitcoin remains in a strong short-term downtrend, trading below key moving averages and SuperTrend levels, with rallies likely to face selling pressure unless major resistance is reclaimed. Source: bbqgio on TradingView

Longer-term indicators also remain bearish. The 200-day EMA sits near $80,674, while the 200-day SMA is positioned around $79,101, both significantly above the current market price.

This configuration suggests that any recovery attempts may face heavy resistance before a larger trend reversal can be confirmed.

Analysts Warn of Further Downside

Several market observers believe the current correction resembles previous bear market cycles.

Crypto analyst ColinTCrypto highlighted a series of breakdowns from descending trend channels on the daily BTC/USD chart, noting that Bitcoin has fallen from highs near $130,000 to the upper-$60,000 range. According to the analyst, historical market cycles often produce deeper and longer-lasting corrections than investors initially expect.

Bitcoin continues to follow a typical bear-market pattern, with repeated breakdowns suggesting the correction may last longer and run deeper than many investors expect. Source: @ColinTCrypto via X

He argued that expectations for a rapid recovery may be premature, adding that lower lows remain possible as the market continues to work through its correction phase.

A similar view was shared by analyst Thierry Borgeat, who described current market conditions as resembling previous “crypto winter” periods. Historically, such phases have involved drawdowns ranging from 70% to 80% and have lasted between 12 and 18 months.

Analyst ThierryBorgeat warns Bitcoin may be entering a prolonged crypto winter, with historical bear-market patterns suggesting a potential decline toward $37,000. Source: @ThierryBorgeat via X

Borgeat’s analysis of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) revealed a decline of roughly 47% from its peak, alongside multiple broken support levels and a Relative Strength rating of just 19, indicating substantial underperformance compared with broader equity benchmarks.

IBIT Flashes Strong Sell Signal

The technical outlook for IBIT, the spot Bitcoin ETF managed by BlackRock, remains notably weak.

According to TradingView’s latest assessment, the ETF carries a “Strong Sell” rating across multiple timeframes. Both short-term and long-term moving averages continue to point lower, reflecting the broader weakness seen across the BTC ETF market.

IBIT price chart. Source: TradingView

Oscillator readings offer little encouragement, with most indicators leaning neutral to bearish rather than signaling a meaningful reversal. The absence of bullish divergences suggests that sellers remain in control for now.

Because IBIT closely tracks the price of Bitcoin, continued weakness in the ETF may reinforce negative sentiment among institutional and retail investors alike.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Hold Above Key Support?

From a chart perspective, Bitcoin’s most important near-term support zone sits around $65,350.

A breakdown below that level could expose the market to additional selling pressure, potentially opening the door to declines toward $64,000 and eventually the widely watched $61,000 region.

On the upside, traders are closely monitoring resistance levels near $69,100 and $71,355. A decisive move above those barriers would be needed to weaken the current bearish structure and improve the outlook for a sustained recovery.

For now, the broader bitcoin price prediction remains heavily dependent on whether ETF flows stabilize and buyers step in to defend key support zones. Until Bitcoin reclaims major moving averages and confirms stronger momentum, technical indicators continue to favor caution despite signs of oversold conditions.