Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: IBIT Weakness Deepens as Analysts Warn BTC Could Retest $65K Cycle Bottom

Weakness across spot Bitcoin ETF products, including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), has further added to cautious market sentiment as traders monitor whether the current correction develops into a deeper retracement.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin price today is hovering near $73,000 after slipping more than 2% during the latest session. The broader crypto market has entered a consolidation phase following repeated rejections near the $77,000–$78,000 resistance zone, an area several analysts now describe as a key technical barrier for any sustainable recovery attempt.

Bitcoin Faces Renewed Pressure Below Key Resistance

Recent price action suggests that BTC remains trapped in a fragile short-term structure despite recovering from February lows earlier this year. Several traders on TradingView pointed to Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim former support levels, arguing that the recent bounce lacked sufficient momentum to confirm a broader trend reversal.

Bitcoin faced sharp rejection near the $78K resistance, with weakening momentum and bearish higher-timeframe structure increasing the risk of further downside if key support fails. Source: R3v_ on TradingView

A TradingView analyst noted that Bitcoin “tapped into a strong daily resistance zone around $77K–$78K and showed immediate rejection,” adding that the higher timeframe market structure still appears bearish.

According to the analysis, the failed breakout reinforces the idea that previous support has now turned into resistance. Momentum indicators also weakened as Bitcoin approached the upper resistance band, signaling that buyers struggled to maintain control above critical levels.

If BTC loses nearby support around the $73,800 pivot region, analysts believe downside continuation toward lower liquidity zones could become increasingly likely. Some bearish projections even identify the psychological $50,000 level as a possible long-term downside target if selling pressure accelerates significantly.

Still, traders noted that a strong daily close above the $78,000 region could invalidate the bearish outlook and potentially trigger renewed upside momentum.

CryptoQuant HODL Waves Point to $65K–$70K Cycle Bottom

On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant has also highlighted growing caution in the current market environment. The firm recently examined Bitcoin’s historical cycle bottoms using HODL Waves, a metric that tracks the age distribution of BTC based on how long coins remain unmoved.

CryptoQuant’s HODL Waves analysis suggests Bitcoin could form a cycle bottom between $65.9K and $70.5K, with stability above $70.5K potentially supporting a gradual recovery trend.  Source: @cryptoquant_com via X

A CryptoQuant contributor suggested that Bitcoin could establish a local or cycle bottom between $65,900 and $70,500. The analyst explained that if Bitcoin manages to hold above the upper end of that range, the market may enter what was described as a “slow grind-out” phase instead of a sharper capitulation event.

Historical HODL Wave patterns have previously aligned with major Bitcoin cycle lows, giving the metric additional relevance among long-term investors. While Bitcoin BTC price currently trades above the projected support zone, analysts say continued weakness in momentum indicators keeps the possibility of a deeper correction on the table.

The report comes as traders continue searching for confirmation that the current decline represents a healthy pullback rather than the beginning of a prolonged bear phase.

Technical Indicators Show Mixed But Bearish-Leaning Signals

TradingView technical data currently presents a cautious outlook for the price of Bitcoin. Aggregate signals show 15 sell ratings, 10 neutral readings, and only one buy signal, reflecting broad uncertainty across the market.

Momentum indicators remain relatively weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 38, remaining below the neutral 50 level and indicating fading bullish momentum without entering deeply oversold territory. The MACD and Momentum indicators continue flashing sell signals, while the Williams %R indicator has dropped to -100, a level often associated with oversold conditions.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $72,815, down 3.21% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin 

Bitcoin is currently trading below several critical short- and medium-term moving averages, including the 10-period EMA near $76,559 and the 20-period EMA around $77,296. This alignment reinforces the bearish structure visible across lower timeframes.

Pivot point analysis also highlights important levels for traders. Immediate resistance remains concentrated between $76,000 and $78,000, while downside support sits near $68,171. A breakdown below that region could expose Bitcoin to additional losses.

IBIT Weakness Reflects Broader Bitcoin ETF Caution

Market attention has also shifted toward the performance of spot Bitcoin ETF products, particularly the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF product IBIT. The iShares Bitcoin Trust, which tracks Bitcoin’s spot price through a physically backed structure, has struggled alongside the broader crypto market correction.

$IBIT price chart (6 months). Source: TradingView

IBIT currently trades in the low-$40 range after previously reaching highs above $70 earlier in the cycle. Despite the decline, the fund still manages more than $61 billion in assets, underscoring continued institutional participation in the Bitcoin ETF sector.

Technical readings for the iShares Bitcoin ETF remain cautious. TradingView data continues to show an overall “Sell” rating across weekly and monthly timeframes, while moving averages point to persistent downside pressure.

Shorter-term averages remain positioned above the current price, acting as dynamic resistance levels. Analysts say this structure typically reflects ongoing bearish momentum and distribution activity.

Support for IBIT is currently seen near the $42–$40 range, with stronger downside support closer to the ETF’s 52-week low around $35. On the upside, resistance remains concentrated between $44 and $46, followed by a stronger supply zone near $50.

Although oscillators for IBIT remain largely neutral, analysts warn that neutral momentum readings inside a broader downtrend often suggest consolidation rather than a confirmed reversal.

Weekly Chart Structure Hints at Major Volatility Ahead

Beyond immediate support and resistance levels, some chart analysts are also watching a developing weekly wedge or pennant structure on Bitcoin’s longer-term chart.

TradingView analyst Goncalo1971 described the formation as a broader “volatility compression” pattern that has developed since Bitcoin’s October 2025 highs. According to the chart analysis, both projected triangle structures appear to converge near mid-September, a period that could coincide with a significant market move.

The analysis highlights potential wedge and pennant formations in Bitcoin’s structure, with both projected compression patterns converging around mid-September as a possible timing point for heightened volatility. Source: goncalo1971 on TradingView

The analyst emphasized that the focus is less about predicting an exact directional breakout and more about identifying a potential timing window for heightened volatility and structural change.

Historically, similar compression patterns have preceded large directional moves in both traditional and crypto markets, making the current setup important for traders monitoring Bitcoin price prediction trends over the coming months.

Broader Market Sentiment Remains Fragile

Despite ongoing institutional adoption through products such as the BlackRock BTC ETF and other spot Bitcoin ETF offerings, overall market sentiment remains cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty and persistent volatility across risk assets.

Analysts say Bitcoin’s next major move will likely depend on whether buyers can reclaim critical resistance zones while maintaining support above the mid-$60,000 region. Failure to stabilize could intensify concerns surrounding another Bitcoin crash scenario, while a recovery above key moving averages may help improve confidence in the broader crypto market outlook.