Bitcoin Rout Worsens – Altcoins Collapse

Bitcoin has plunged below the critical $60,000 support level as of August 4, amid a broader market downturn. This week saw Bitcoin subjected to heavy selling, influenced by a 6% drop in Japan’s Nikkei index on August 2, and compounded by a disappointing U.S. jobs report for July.

After a steady decline, a stunning collapse from Bitcoin over the weekend. Source: BNC Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX)

Bitcoin’s sharp decline happened after initially surging to $70,000, a three-month peak. The excitement was short-lived, however, as days later the cryptocurrency has fallen to a new low of  close to $54,000 perplexing traders who had anticipated a post-halving bull run.

Many altcoin percentage declines have been even greater than Bitcoin’s. Source: Brave New Coin Market Cap. 

Despite the recent downturn, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a broad trading range. Predicting the next directional move remains challenging, but Bitcoin ‘whales’ (holders of large quantities of Bitcoin) appear optimistic. In July alone, addresses with over 1,000 Bitcoin accumulated an extra 84,000 Bitcoin, while exchanges saw a significant withdrawal of 64,000 Bitcoin, the most substantial since 2015, as reported by Glassnode.

The decline in Bitcoin’s value has also dragged down altcoins, with many investors opting to wait on the sidelines. However, as Bitcoin approaches the lower end of its range, there is potential for buying activity to increase.

Source: Trading View

Since August 1, alongside downturns in the U.S. stock market—which have been affected by rising unemployment claims and a decline in manufacturing—Bitcoin’s price has fallen by 10%. During this period, Bitcoin ETFs have seen approximately $200 million in withdrawals, likely influenced by heightened recession fears sparked by the latest job market data.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin supporters will hold onto hope that the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate adjustments in September could stabilize the market.

Genesis Trading Coins Released?

The mood had turned grim even before the U.S. jobs report, as Japan’s Nikkei index plunged 5.8% on Friday, following a 4% decline the previous day. This selloff was triggered by a minor monetary tightening action from the Bank of Japan on Wednesday, which raised its benchmark lending rate to 0.25% from the previous range of 0%-0.1%. This set a grim tone for global stocks, with the Nikkei’s steep drop hinting at further losses on Wall Street. The situation worsened with U.S. employment data falling far short of expectations, heightening the sense of panic.

Bitcoin also took a hit, losing nearly $5,000 on Saturday and breaking through several key support levels, including the short-term holder cost basis. As a result, liquidations surged, with a total crypto longs wipeout of $230 million.

Adding to the bearish sentiment was the movement of 16,600 Bitcoin (about $1.1 billion) and 166,300 Ether (around $521 million) from wallets linked to the bankrupt Genesis Trading. According to Arkham Intelligence, these transfers were likely for in-kind repayments to creditors.

The Trump Effect

Amid these financial upheavals, political developments also loom large over the market. The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election, particularly with the rising prospects of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris against GOP nominee Donald Trump, adds another layer of complexity. The outcome could significantly influence the regulatory landscape for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Trump has linked himself to the success or failure of Bitcoin and the crypto industry, which is proving to be a double-edged sword. If he wins, crypto will benefit, but if the Democrats return to power, crypto’s future in the US is much less certain.

Trump has promised to create a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, an idea also championed by U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis. At Bitcoin 2024, Lummis introduced a groundbreaking proposal aimed at revolutionizing the United States’ fiscal strategy. Dubbed the “strategic Bitcoin reserve” bill, Lummis’s plan suggests that the U.S. government should purchase 5% of the world’s Bitcoin supply and retain it for a minimum of twenty years. The strategic reserve is designed with a singular purpose: to mitigate the nation’s burgeoning debt.