Private Instant Verified Transaction(X) Price Analysis

Private Instant Verified Transaction(X) (PIVX) currently has a market cap of US$202 million. The asset spiked in February of this year, yielding a 72x return.

PIVX is a fork created from Bitcoin and DASH, originally released as Darknet in February 2016 and later rebranded. The main goals and benefits of PIVX are similar to DASH, instant private transactions with a decentralized, community-driven governance model. This is achieved through a Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus algorithm which also uses Masternodes requiring 10,000 PIVX (US$37,000). There are currently 2,045 PIVX Masternodes which lock up 20,450,000 of the total supply, or about 27%.

An initial Proof of Work (PoW) distribution phase ended in August 2016. The PoW to PoS transition is one approach to help ensure as many users as possible gain a voice in governance. Ethereum is undergoing a similar transition currently.

Each block reward, currently 18 PIVX, is split. 10% goes toward the budgeting mechanism and 90% is dedicated to both the masternodes and stake mining reward, which uses a variable Seesaw Reward Balance System (SRBS) that dynamically adjusts its block reward size between masternodes and staking.

Block times are 60 seconds, with difficulty retargeting after each block. PIVX has no maximum cap and currently experiences ~3% inflation per year. The SRBS and the inflationary supply are two key differences that separates PIVX from DASH.

The budgeting mechanism funds proposals, including spending 1,000 PIVX per month for 12 months on core developers, support, marketing, branding, and outreach. Further roadmap developments will include: community designed governance, multi-sig escrow and addresses, and elastic block sizes.

The most recent upgrade added Zerocoin Protocol to PIVX Core 3.0, which enables the option for 100% anonymous transactions. These changes go live on October 16th. Many, if not all, cryptocurrencies and assets are shifting towards the option for anonymized transactions, as opposed to pseudonymous transactions which are vulnerable to fungibility concerns.

Exchange traded volume is led almost exclusively by the PIVX/BTC pair. Most of the volume is from Bittrex. Expect a large jump in price should the coin get listed on any Asian exchanges.

Technical Analysis

After the month long meteoric rise in March 2017, PIVX almost immediately entered another consolidation phase. That phase is likely nearing an end based on a large triangle with descending volume profile.

These chart patterns typically represent bullish continuation with resistance, or likely targets, being found at the 1.618 fib extension and measured move. In this case, both point to a target around 280k sats. Triangles typically break when about ¾ full. Expect volume confirmation to confirm the triangle breakout as well.

Other metrics to determine trend can include Ichimoku Cloud, Moving Averages, and Bollinger Bands.

The Cloud on the daily chart, using singled settings (10/30/60/30) for quicker signals, shows a mixture of signals. A long entry would trigger when price was cleanly above the Cloud with a bullish TK cross and Lagging Span above price. Future cloud is already bullish.

Using doubled Cloud settings (20/60/120/30) for more accurate signals, the Cloud gives a cleaner sense of the current price action. A long entry signal would trigger with future Cloud twisting bullish and Lagging Span above price and Cloud. The TK cross is already bullish.

The 50/200EMAs on the daily chart have been flattening out. Expect these to widen as price determines a direction. A bearish 50/200EMA Death Cross would be a strong long exit signal. Thus far, the 200EMA has held price as support. A candle close below the 200EMA would be an earlier sign of a bearish reversal.

The daily Bollinger Bands (BBands), a measure of volatility, have tightened and expanded several times since the all time high, on declining volume. A candle close above or below the BBands, on volume, will likely set a new interim trend. Price has been weaving above and below the 20SMA for the past week so there is no clear prediction in the direction based on BBands alone.

Conclusion

PIVX has both an active development team and community dedicated to improving the coin for all users. As DASH’s little brother, PIVX has plenty of room for upside simply based on the current lack of awareness and trading availability surrounding the coin. With the Zerocoin Protocol changes, PIVX adds itself to the growing list of fully anonymized enabled coins.

Technicals suggest continuation after months of consolidation with an immediate target of 280k sats. Indicators which evaluate trend, like Ichimoku Cloud and EMAs, currently take a back seat to indicators that approximate the beginning of a trend, used during consolidation, like chart patterns and BBands.