On the daily chart for XTZ/USD, the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Average bullishly crossed in January, leading price to new all-time highs.
The Tezos (XTZ) market cap currently stands at US$2.47 billion with US$372 million in trade volume over the past 24 hours. XTZ is ranked 33rd on the Brave New Coin market cap table. The XTZ price is down 30% in the last 7 days.
The Tezos ledger uses a delegated Proof of Stake consensus mechanism with a target block time of one minute. The Tezos blockchain upgraded with the Edo update on February 13th at block 1,343,489. Edo is the fifth Tezos upgrade in the last two years. The project has the stated goal of upgrading frequently to and “rapidly incorporating the best available technology” into its blockchain. The Edo upgrade follows the Delphi upgrade of three months ago.
Tezos is a decentralized smart contract and application network, with an on-chain governance layer designed to enable efficient network upgrades and provide a transparent stakeholder community.
Portions of the XTZ model were first conceived by Gordon Mohr and L.M. Goodman in late 2013 and early 2014. Kathleen Breitman and Arthur Breitman released the first Tezos position paper and white paper in late 2014.
Initial development started in the setting of both Bitcoin and Ethereum scaling and governance disputes. The Switzerland-based Tezos Foundation was created in April 2017, with the goal of providing support to XTZ, related technologies, and the XTZ community. The project’s ICO occurred from July 1st to July 13th, 2017 when each token was sold for US$0.47. The ICO raised a total of 65,000 BTC and 325,000 ETH, or US$232 million, which made it one of the largest ICOs at the time.
Roadmaps for future market movements can be found on high timeframes using Exponential Moving Averages, Volume Profile Visible Range, Pivot Points, Ichimoku Cloud, and divergences. Further background information on the technical analysis discussed below can be found here.
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On the daily chart for XTZ/USD, the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) bullishly crossed in January, leading price to new all-time highs. The Volume Profile of the Visible Range shows support at US$2.75 and resistance at US$3.70 and US$4.65. Yearly pivots also show resistance at US$3.70 and US$6.00. Additionally, there are no bullish or bearish divergences on volume or RSI at this time.
Bitfinex open interest is currently 99% long, with long interest decreasing over the past month and short interest remaining flat over the same time period (top panel, chart below). A significant price movement downwards will result in an exaggerated move as the long positions begin to unwind. This is known as a “long squeeze”.
Turning to the Ichimoku Cloud, four metrics are used to determine if a trend exists; the current price in relation to the Cloud, the color of the Cloud (red for bearish, green for bullish), the Tenkan (T) and Kijun (K) cross, and the Lagging Span. The best entry always occurs when most of the signals flip from bearish to bullish, or vice versa.
Daily Cloud metrics, with doubled settings (20/60/120/30), for more accurate signals, are bullish; the spot price is above the Cloud, the Cloud is bullish, the TK cross is bullish, and the Lagging Span is above the Cloud and above the current spot price. The trend will remain bullish so long as the spot price remains below the Cloud, currently at US$2.60.
Both the XTZ/BTC and XTZ/ETH pairs show strong bearish trend metrics with prices at or near all-time lows. A remote possibility for both pairs is a mean reversion to the respective 200-day moving averages, but even more likely, consolidation at current lows or bearish continuation.