Basic Attention Token Price Analysis – Disrupting the ad revenue models of both Google and Facebook

Basic Attention Token (BAT) is an ERC20 token and the native utility token for the Brave web browser, and is currently 40th on the BNC market cap table. The market cap currently stands at US$197.6 million with US$3.5 million in trading volume over the past 24 hours.

Brendan Eich, founder and CEO of BAT, is the creator of Javascript and co-founder of Mozilla and Firefox. His platform aims to enable micropayments for publishers and content creators, providing an alternative to ad-based revenue streams, while removing the need for ad networks, fraud arbitration, and privacy violations.

Google and Facebook have taken over the ad industry, and know collect over 73% of online digital ad revenue, and 99% of all growth from 2015 to 2016 in US total online ad budget. Moreover, ads have not only significantly increased page load times, but more and more users have also opted toward using ad blockers, which has lead to decreasing revenue for the majority of online publications.

Creators do not need to use Brave to collect BAT payments but can complete the verification process on Uphold where audience contributions are kept in escrow. BAT can also be automatically converted to fiat currencies and transferred to the creator’s bank account. Users can take advantage of a recently launched trial program for opt-in ads as well as payment support for YouTube and Twitch streaming.

In July, Brave reported three million monthly active users. In comparison, as of November 2016, Chrome reported two billion installs. However, the Brave browser has the quickest load times amongst competitors Chrome and Firefox and is routinely tested on both desktop and mobile. The Brave browser recently enabled private Tor browsing on desktop and DuckDuckGo for private mobile tabs, and integrated the Ethereum (ETH) browser wallet MetaMask.

The Brave platform underwent had three rounds of funding; a seed round in November 2015 raising US$2.5 million, a seed round in August 2016 raising US$4.5 million, and an ICO in May 2017 raising US$35 million in 30 seconds with 130 participants. Notable investors include Digital Currency Group and Pantera Capital. Each of the one billion tokens available for the crowdsale was sold at a price of US$0.03.

BAT tokens have roughly averaged 1000 transactions per day over the past year. Because BAT does not have a native blockchain and is an ERC20 token, it is transacted through the ETH blockchain. Therefore, BAT transactions are subject to ETH transaction fees. BAT transactions spiked above 4,500 on July 23rd, while reaching a new local price high on Bittrex.

The number of unique sending and receiving BAT addresses participating in transactions on each given day has steadily declined since the beginning of the year. While most crypto projects have seen a sharp decline in interest as the collective market declines in price, the active addresses can elucidate the number of users both on and off the Brave browser.

The network value to estimated on-chain daily transactions (NVT) ratio in log scale has averaged near 100 throughout most of the year. The 30-day average (red) has declined over the past few months after reaching a record high in March. A low NVT is suggestive of increasing economic activity on a blockchain, and that the coin is undervalued based on its utility.

The BAT project on GitHub has had a cumulative 405 commits over the past year. The Brave browser also has an active GitHub account. Most coins use the developer community of GitHub, where files are saved in folders called “repositories” or "repos," and changes to these files are recorded with “commits.” Although commits represent quantity and not necessarily quality, a higher number of commits can signify higher dev activity.

BAT exchange traded volume in the past 24 hours has predominantly been led by the Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) pairs with direct fiat pairs representing <5% of total volume. The majority of trading has been conducted on Binance, Huobi, and Bittrex. On July 13th, Coinbase announced plans for a potential BAT listing in the near future.

Technical Analysis

The fiat markets for BAT are almost entirely non-existent, so charting the BAT/BTC pair makes the most sense. BAT has essentially ranged from 1000-5000 sats over the past year. As BAT breaks this range and a trend emerges, volume, exponential moving averages (EMAs), and Ichimoku Cloud can help determine optimal entry points. Further background information on the technical analysis discussed below can be found here.

On the two day chart, the volume profile of the visible range (VPVR) shows that, unsurprisingly, most of the volume has occurred at both extremes of the range. If multiple candle closes occur above the 5000 sat level with a spike in daily volume, price will likely continue much higher. Price had been forming a multi-month ascending triangle chart pattern with a series of higher lows until the local lows were recently breached.

On the daily chart, the 50/200EMA are bearishly crossed, with price far below the 200EMA. Over the past few months, the 50EMA has acted as both a weak resistance and a weak support. A break of the 200EMA and a bullish 50/200EMA cross would be a strong signal for bullish continuation, although previous crosses have not had bullish follow-through. There are no active bullish or bearish RSI divergences.

Turning to the Ichimoku Cloud, four metrics are used to determine if a trend exists; the current price in relation to the Cloud, the color of the Cloud (red for bearish, green for bullish), the Tenkan (T) and Kijun (K) cross, and the Lagging Span. The best entry always occurs when most of the signals flip from bearish to bullish, or vice versa.

The status of the current Cloud metrics on the twelve hour (left) and the daily (right) time frames, with doubled settings (20/60/120/30) for more accurate signals, are both bearish: price is below Cloud, Cloud is bearish, TK cross is bearish, and Lagging Span is below Cloud and price. A traditional long entry will not trigger until price is above the Cloud. The TK disequilibriums on both charts are suggestive of a c-clamp structure yearning for mean reversion to ~4500 sats.

Conclusion

The Brave browser has a steep uphill battle as it seeks to disrupt the ad revenue models of both Google and Facebook, among others. With recent and continuing revelations regarding privacy and user data, Brave is fighting the good fight with brand alignment, not only with cryptocurrency users but the public at large. The supply of the circulating one billion BAT tokens are likely to continually provide downward pressure on price until active Brave users, active addresses, and daily transaction amounts increase dramatically.

Technicals suggest continued ranging between 1000-5000 sats, perhaps until a Coinbase listing. Speculators will be accumulating low ranges and selling any Coinbase announcements regarding a BAT listing, buying the rumor and selling on any listing announcement FOMO. Look no further than ETC as far as how these listings have panned out in the crypto bear market.

The Brave browser has a steep uphill battle as it seeks to disrupt the ad revenue models of both Google and Facebook, among others. With recent and continuing revelations regarding privacy and user data, Brave is fighting the good fight with brand alignment, not only with cryptocurrency users but the public at large.