Bitcoin Rallies to $75,000 as Iran Deal Hopes, Bullish Forecasts and Stablecoin Scrutiny Collide

The move triggered a massive wave of liquidations across the derivatives market, with more than $530 million in leveraged positions wiped out in 24 hours — roughly 80 per cent of which were short bets on Bitcoin and Ether. The rally coincided with bullish long-term forecasts from prominent market voices and a fresh round of regulatory scrutiny aimed at Elon Musk’s emerging payments platform, X Money.

Bitcoin briefly hit $75,000 today, source: BNC

Geopolitics Sparks a Short Squeeze

The catalyst for the latest leg higher appears to be growing market confidence that Washington and Tehran are moving toward a deal to end weeks of military escalation in the Persian Gulf. A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began on Monday, with President Donald Trump warning that any Iranian vessel approaching the cordon would be eliminated. However, Trump also told reporters that Iran wants to negotiate, provided any agreement prevents Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at digital asset exchange BTSE, told Cointelegraph that markets are rallying because traders believe a deal is within reach. Iran’s economy depends heavily on oil exports, and an extended blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would inflict severe damage. Mei said Iran appeared to be scrambling to broker an agreement, and both equity and crypto markets were responding accordingly.

The total crypto market capitalisation climbed to $2.6 trillion, its highest level in a month, according to CoinGlass data. Some 177,000 traders were liquidated, with more than $425 million of those losses coming from short positions in BTC and ETH. Ether posted an even larger percentage gain, climbing 7.5 per cent to reach $2,380 — its highest price since early February.

Not everyone was convinced the move had staying power. Valerius Labs cautioned that the rally was a short squeeze running into overhead supply rather than a genuine breakout, noting that real buyers would only confirm a trend change above the 200-day simple moving average.

Tom Lee Declares “Mini Crypto Winter” Over

Speaking at Paris Blockchain Week 2026, Bitmine Immersion Technologies chairman Tom Lee offered a far more optimistic take. Lee described the recent market downturn as a “mini crypto winter” — an unusual period in which crypto declined without a corresponding bear market in equities — and argued that equity markets have already bottomed in the wake of the US-Iran conflict.

Lee said Ether is emerging from a prolonged consolidation phase and could climb above $60,000 over the next few years, driven by institutional tokenisation initiatives and the growing role of agentic artificial intelligence on the Ethereum network. He described $62,000 as a fair-value scenario, based on Ethereum reaching roughly one-quarter of Bitcoin’s long-term value.

His comments arrived alongside a sobering disclosure from Bitmine itself. The company posted a $3.82 billion quarterly loss, according to an SEC filing, driven almost entirely by unrealised markdowns on its Ether holdings. Bitmine’s average cost basis sits at $3,660 per ETH — well above the current spot price of around $2,327. Undeterred, the company purchased a further 71,524 ETH on Monday, pushing its total holdings to roughly 4.04 per cent of all circulating Ether supply. Bitmine now holds 4.6 million ETH valued at more than $10 billion, making it the largest corporate Ether holder in the world.

Brandt Maps a Longer Road to $200,000 Bitcoin

The bullish sentiment was tempered by veteran trader Peter Brandt, who has maintained a notably more conservative long-term outlook. In analysis published in late 2025, Brandt projected that Bitcoin would not reach $200,000 until around the third quarter of 2029 — a timeline that puts him sharply at odds with figures like Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, both of whom have targeted $1 million BTC by 2030.

Brandt described himself as a long-term Bitcoin bull but warned that historical cycle patterns — including what he calls the “dominant parabolic advance” — suggest significant corrections are a feature, not a bug, of every major BTC bull run. He cited drawdowns of 86 per cent after the 2011 rally, 80 per cent following 2013, 77 per cent after 2017 and 74 per cent in the wake of the 2021 peak. Earlier in the cycle he outlined potential downside targets at $81,000 and $58,000 before any sustained move higher.

Despite those warnings, Brandt affirmed that he still held 40 per cent of the largest Bitcoin position he has ever accumulated. He called the broader market pullback a healthy development that could ultimately set up the next major advance.

Warren Takes Aim at X Money and Stablecoin Carve-Outs

While markets focused on price action, Washington’s regulatory machinery continued to churn. Senator Elizabeth Warren sent a formal letter to Elon Musk on Tuesday seeking information about X Money, a payments feature expected to be integrated into the X social media platform in the near future. Warren argued that X Money’s potential stablecoin and crypto integrations could pose risks to the financial system and US national security.

At the heart of Warren’s concern is a provision in the GENIUS Act — the landmark stablecoin legislation signed into law by President Trump in July 2025 — that allows private companies to issue their own US dollar-pegged tokens. Warren questioned whether X Money intended to issue its own stablecoin under that carve-out, and flagged the platform’s reported partnership with Cross River Bank, which has previously faced enforcement action from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

Warren also raised questions about X Money’s advertised 6 per cent yield on deposits, asking how either X Money or Cross River intended to sustain that return when the target Federal Funds Rate sits at 3.5 to 3.75 per cent. FDIC Chair Travis Hill has previously stated that stablecoin deposits are not covered by FDIC insurance under the GENIUS Act, although the legislation does not expressly prohibit pass-through insurance arrangements.

The letter could signal broader pushback from US lawmakers as the GENIUS Act’s 18-month implementation window approaches and more technology companies explore issuing their own stablecoins.

What Comes Next

The convergence of geopolitical catalysts, aggressive corporate treasury strategies, long-range price forecasts and regulatory friction illustrates just how many forces are shaping crypto markets simultaneously in mid-April 2026. Bitcoin reclaimed the $74,000 level this week for the first time since mid-March, but faces immediate resistance at $75,000 and remains more than 40 per cent below its October 2025 all-time high of $125,100. Whether the rally extends or stalls will likely depend on the trajectory of US-Iran negotiations, the pace of institutional inflows through spot ETF products, and the evolving regulatory landscape around stablecoins and digital payments.