Lithium Price Analysis Tracks China Policy News and Breakout Levels

Asia Lithium News highlighted China’s latest review of mineral resource rules, drawing new interest to the lithium market.

The policy update came at a time when lithium carbonate futures continued to bounce back from a long bear market. Trader charts indicated futures trading was well above a watched breakout zone, and GFEX data confirmed intraday buyers’ selling pressure on yuan contracts.

China Policy Update Drives Focus

Asia Lithium News received direct feedback from a front-line LFP factory that, if the grade of the crude ore is less than 0.4%, it will be difficult to get it mined unless it is approved for mining in terms of the lithium by-product. The policy wasn’t yet in place, the account added, so it’s not clear yet what the policy will have.

“The same post posted a Chinese news flash stating that the state council, Li Qiang, held an executive meeting of his council on May 9. Draft implementation regulations of the Mineral Resources Law of the People’s Republic of China were discussed and accepted during the meeting.

The shared update called for improved mineral resource management in the entire chain. Also highlighted during the meeting were a strategic mineral resources catalogue, enhanced reserve systems, emergency response capability, and wider mineral security.

Specifically, lithium’s high sensitivity is due to its critical importance in battery supply chains, with China being a key producer in battery refining and LFP manufacturing. Changes to the ore rules can have an impact on expectations of ore discipline even before formal enforcement kicks in.

Futures Break Above Key Zone

The trader, Silver Wolf, said that futures of lithium carbonate were trading clear of the 22.25 level, which he had been following closely. The post noted that the move had broken on May 1 and had marched higher to reach 24.57, which was above a prior resistance area.

Lithium carbonate futures were up from a prolonged sell-off that started in 2023 and continued through most of 2024 and early 2025, according to his chart. Price later set up another base and surged out when the momentum swung back.

The X chart also compared the current wave to a previous impulse leg. If there is a similar structure, it could start toward the 30 area, which would mean a positive return of 35% from the level mentioned in the post, Silver Wolf said.

The same configuration is still a bit early in the cycle recovery, though. The futures chart indicates lithium’s improved bounces from the lows, but it remains to be seen if the 30 bull market target can be reached until support stays above the recent breakout zone.

GFEX Data Shows Mixed Session

Juan Carlos Zuleta presented the GFEX lithium carbonate data and asked about which one was accurate. During the May 8 session, GFEX LC2609 fell 620 yuan (0.31%) to 196,560 yuan per tonne, according to the screenshot.

The same X data had the previous close at 197,080 yuan, while the contract opened at 197,120 yuan. The trading range for the day was wide despite the modest headline loss, with prices between 195,100 yuan and 201,480 yuan.

Open interest totalled 513,252, and volume was 244,199. The number of turns was 48,358,762,100 yuan, reflecting traders’ eagerness to follow the latest policy and price signals.

Lithium is kept in a split setup for daily analysis.

Policy news continues to support the supply-side emphasis, and futures charts indicate a breakout; however, GFEX intraday data show sellers around higher levels.